Mid Suffolk elections 2019 - a time of unexpected nervousness and high drama...

On Wednesday, I had made time to listen to an East Anglian Daily Times podcast, previewing the local elections across Suffolk. The presenters had concluded that Mid Suffolk was likely to be the least interesting of the five contests and, to be honest, I didn't really have grounds to disagree. A notional majority of fourteen on the newly trimmed thirty-four seat authority, and only really the Greens and the Liberal Democrats - both plucky but seriously under-resourced - standing in their way.

It turned out slightly differently...

When the early results started coming in from across the country on Thursday night and the early hours of Friday, it became apparent that the Conservative vote had melted down. But, and this was an important "but", it did seem that there were serious campaigns being run in those places. That wasn't entirely true in Mid Suffolk. Yes, in our held and target seats, campaigns were being run, and in many wards, if you didn't want to vote Conservative, you had very few options - half of the seats were Conservative vs A N Other - but still...

By the time I woke up on Friday morning, the sheer horror of overnight events must have been beginning to dawn on local Conservatives, and, as the very much paper candidate in Claydon & Barham, a two member ward with two Conservative candidates and a Green, it was beginning to dawn on me that a most unlikely outcome was not entirely impossible.

The count started at 9 a.m., and as the ballot papers had been verified overnight, there must already have been some unease in Conservative circles, as it turned out.

Things started to go sour early, with Bacton going to the Greens - goodbye Conservative Housing portfolio holder - by nearly 2:1, the Green canddiate having painted the sheep on his smallholding with "Vote Andy". It wasn't even close, and when Ringshall & Battisford went Green soon after, I did begin to wonder.

And then it became clear that this was going to be pretty bloody for the Conservatives, when their leader, Nick Gowrley, bit the dust, losing to our very own Keith Scarff by 114. Now, Keith has lost so many elections at District and County levels by agonisingly small margins that I seriously wondered why he does this to himself, but he got himself a proper scalp. He'll be a very good councillor for the south end of Stowmarket.

The notional Conservative majority was now eight, and only six seats had been declared...

Fressingfield went Tory (no real surprise there), and I lost in Claydon & Barham by 290 (the Green got within 155 of the County's Police and Crime Commissioner!). As a paperless candidate, resident outside the ward, I'd gained 35% of the vote. The game was, most definitely, on...

Three more holds, Kathy Guthrie and Matthew Hicks for the Conservatives in Debenham anjd Hoxne & Worlingworth respectively, and John Field in Blakenham for us with 51.7% of the vote, and then the result which made me think that no overall control was a real possibility, with a Green gain of one of the seats in the north Stowmarket ward of Chilton.

Notional Conservative majority now six...

Onehouse's veteran Green councillor won handily and then Eye returned its expected Conservative, but only after a scare. The Returning Officer had called the candidates together to advise that the Liberal Democrat candidate, Tim Glenton, had narrowly won. And then he hadn't, losing by forty-nine (I'm guessing that a bundle check undid the original verdict).

The Conservatives held Walsham-le-Willows and Stonham, Penny Otton, our Group Leader, was safely returned in Rattlesden with 64% of the votes. The two member ward of Haughley, Stowupland & Wetherden returned the two expected Greens with majorities of around 1,000 apiece, Rickinghall returned Conservative Jessica Fleming (who clearly divides her time between Cabot Cove and mid-Suffolk), although her sole opponent (Labour) got within 200 votes.

Another Green gain in Thurston, and then a result which seemed at first amazing but turned out to have rather more significance than anyone might have imagined, as my successor as Local Party Treasurer, David Child, lost by one to the sitting Conservative. Now, my suspicion is that there was no campaign in the central Stowmarket ward of St Peter's, but I'm a bit out of touch, so I'll put it down to bad luck.

The notional Conservative majority was now done to four. But they did have the Independent in Combs Ford, who'd been a portfolio holder in the outgoing Conservative administration. So, it was still six really...

And then, Gislingham went Green, and the Conservatives lost another to the Greens in the newly created Stow Thorney ward - everything east of the railway line in Stowmarket.

Mid Suffolk was notionally a no overall control authority!

Palgrave returned the expected Conservative but we were still to hear from Needham Market, a Liberal Democrat stronghold for thirty years and Ros's old District seat between 1991 and 1995 (yes, it all started there). I knew that the Conservatives hadn't campaigned but still, it's the Conservatives and I'm used to bad news. We couldn't have lost, could we? But no, we hadn't, and Mike Norris and his new running mate, Steve Phillips, were very comfortably voted in by a 2:1 margin.

That left Stradbroke & Laxfield (safe Conservative and with the former Green candidate not running) and the two member ward of Elmswell & Woolpit, notionally split with one Green and one Conservative... who lost by more than two hundred!

And so, the carnage was over, leaving the Mid Suffolk Conservatives headless and out of control, with key leadership figures gone, along with their seemingly impregnable majority.

The final outcome - Conservatives 16 (minus 8), Greens 12 (plus 7), Liberal Democrats 5 (plus 1), Independent 1 - leaves the council absolutely hung, unless Gerard Brewster, the Independent, swaps sides. I don't know if he will, indeed I strongly suspect that he won't, but from the comments I've heard, the Conservatives hope to hang on with the casting vote of the Chair. One vote switched or extra in St Peter's ward and a coin toss, and we would have seen possibly the first ever Green/Liberal Democrat coalition administration, a point that the Green Leader, Andrew Stringer openly stated as being the likely outcome afterwards.

The voting shares are a cause for thought though;

• Conservatives - 40.68% (thirty-two candidates)
• Greens - 34.00% (twenty-one candidates)
• Liberal Democrats - 17.69% (19 candidates)
• Labour - 4.30% (9 candidates)
• Independents - 3.00% (2 candidates)
• UKIP - 0.32% (1 candidate)

We're back in third place, having come second across the District in the 2017 County elections. All credit to the local Greens - they appear to have swallowed whole the classic ALDC playbook and they're very persistent - but it could be argued that, were we to be more ambitious, it could have been us.

From a proportionality perspective the result reasonably reflects the votes cast, for the vote share, if applied proportionately, would have generated a result;

Conservatives 14, Greens 12, Liberal Democrats 6, Labour 1, Independent 1

FPTP saves the Conservatives again, though.

The conclusions I draw from the results are as follows;

1. In this instance, an anti-Conservative pact, albeit a very informal, possibly accidental one, worked. The absence of Labour, UKIP and any corps of independents helped, and you're unlikely to replicate that in many places. We have a joint group on Suffolk County Council and Mid Suffolk has two relatively friendly groups at District level.
2. Labour simply don't exist in rural districts like Mid Suffolk, and even where they were the only opponents to Conservatives, they rarely did well.
3. Our local Conservatives don't campaign between elections - they seldom have to - but when circumstances combine as they did on Thursday, they are extremely vulnerable as they seem unable, or possibly too arrogant, to respond here. Again, I don't suspect that's the case in a lot of other places.
4. Whilst UKIP didn't play any significant role in Mid Suffolk, their absence saved the Conservatives from a far worse drubbing. I suspect that even I might have won had they contested Claydon & Barham, for example.

And so, the apparently least interesting contest in Suffolk turned out to be the most dramatic, even on a night of drama across the county. And, for the first time in nearly a decade, Liberal Democrats were not counting their losses and mourning their disappointments. We nearly ended up with a gain of three, but we have something to work towards for 2023, and thoughts now turn to winning back Bosmere and gaining Stowmarket South in the 2021 County elections - bearing in mind the possibility of revised boundaries in the meantime.

We've got some of our mojo back, the Greens have the wind in their sails, and the world looks like a very different place all of a sudden...

Creeting St Peter: a little light reading matter

One of the great worries of any Parish Council, and perhaps especially for its Chair, is the prospect of housing development. Increasingly, we see speculative applications for housing, on sites that might not otherwise be obviously suitable, because the local District Council doesn’t have a five year housing land supply set aside. In reality, even if it does, the onus is on the District to prove that it meets the requirements as laid down by the Department for Housing, Communities and Local Government.

Here in Mid Suffolk, we were told last summer that the District was in good shape, having carried out a lot of work to locate suitable sites, calculate likely building rates and future proof their estimates against an expected increase in the Local Housing Need, as calculated by the Housing Delivery Test. At the time, I questioned whether there was enough elbow room to survive an expected increase, and was reassured that, whilst it might be a bit tight, Mid Suffolk was expected to remain compliant.

As it turned out, the Planning Team were wrong. The increase was rather more than they had expected, and their numbers weren’t perhaps as robust as they thought. At the first challenge, a planning inspector found against the Council’s confident claim that the five year supply was there, and the fears of a number of  our neighbouring and near neighbouring Parishes were realised.

It was back to the drawing board for the District Council, and they have now launched a consultation, inviting interested parties, as set out in the NPPF (small and large developers, land promoters, private and public land owners, infrastructure providers (such as utility providers, highways, etc), upper tier authorities (county councils) and neighbouring authorities with adjourning or cross-boundary sites) to comment on the Draft Mid Suffolk Housing Land Supply Position Statement for 2018/2019.

You’ll notice that this doesn’t include Parish Councils, although it has been sent to us, and I do feel a duty to read it.

I suspect that this might have something to do with the likely scale of anger that, having had our hopes of relief raised, they were then dashed so soon.

Now I will admit that, as it currently stands, there seems little prospect of large scale development in Creeting St Peter. At least, if the planning envelope is to be respected, there isn’t. But, with Stowmarket having already annexed part of the Parish to build (one day) a business and enterprise park, and with other parishes having suffered similar losses for new housing, one has reason to fear being swallowed up by our increasingly urban neighbour.

Mid Suffolk is expected to ensure that 590 new dwellings are built each year to handle the increasing demand - partly societal but also a measure of Suffolk’s population growth relative to the country. They’ve got to go somewhere, but with increasing pressure on schools, NHS facilities and infrastructure, there is increasing unhappiness at Parish level. If you’ve got a railway station, like Elmswell, Needham Market or Thurston, you can expect new housing. Even large villages with poor public transport, such as Stowupland, are seeing sizeable new developments. Combine that with the cuts imposed on County and District Councils, and the scope for problems is obvious.

I have a bad feeling about this...

I may not be what Mid Suffolk District Council expect...

I take my newly awarded responsibilities as Chair of my Parish Council seriously, as one should. 

In that capacity, I see myself having a role in lobbying for things that we need or want, and in attending meetings so that I might better anticipate things that might impact on us sooner or later. And so, the receipt of an invitation to attend a Town and Parish Council Liaison Meeting, organised by Mid Suffolk District Council, seemed like an obvious thing to attend.

I was, I have to confess, therefore somewhat surprised to discover that the meeting would take place at 10 a.m. on a Thursday morning, in Walsham-le-Willows.

In fairness, Walsham-le-Willows is a very nice place for a meeting, especially on a summer’s morning. It is, unfortunately, rather a long way from a railway station, and the only buses run between Bury St Edmunds and Diss every two hours or so, making it rather hard to get to if you don’t drive.

That is trying enough as a non-driver, but I find myself wondering what message it sends about the sort of people who might be Town or Parish councillors, that it is thought appropriate to hold a meeting on a work day, during regular office hours. I am, I suspect, fairly common in having a job, and for most people who have jobs, attending a mid-morning meeting requires the taking of leave from work. The assumption must therefore be that Mid Suffolk District Council expect most councillors to be retired, hardly an indication that they represent the broadest swathe of our community.

We’re lucky in Creeting St Peter, in that our councillors come from a broad spectrum of age groups, and I tend to think that this means that we have a diversity of views and approaches that makes us more effective than we would be if we all had a similar perspective. But Mid Suffolk District Council doesn’t appear to think that diversity of representation either exists or is important if it does.

The accessibility issue troubles me as well, although I acknowledge that, as one of the 10% of rural people who don’t drive, I am rather more of a minority that the under-65s are.

It sends out a message though, a message that I am not particularly welcome, and that younger councillors aren’t worth making an effort to engage with.

Trust me, I will be making this point loud and clear at the meeting, and will press Mid Suffolk District Council to hold at least some of these meetings in more accessible locations and at more convenient times for people with jobs. And, unless these events are designed simply to be convenient for the District Council, I expect them to at least understand why I’m annoyed.

Mid Suffolk - the results...

Well, as Treasurer of the Mid Suffolk Local Party, I had set my goals fairly low for the campaign, with the hope that we might retain our deposits in Bury St Edmunds and in Suffolk Central and North Ipswich. As for the District Council elections, my fear was that we would be swept away by high turnout.

Firstly, the Parliamentary elections. Given the calamitous performance across the country, retaining both deposits is something of a pleasant surprise, even if the results are awful.

In Bury St Edmunds, David Chappell came fifth with 3,581 votes (6%), down 20.4% on our 2010 performance, when we came second. In Suffolk Central and North Ipswich, Jon Neal came fourth with 3,314 votes (6.1%), down 18.8% on our 2010 performance. I am grateful to them for their willingness to fly the flag under difficult circumstances.

On Mid Suffolk District Council, we lost two of the six seats we were defending, Ringshall, where we were defending a majority of just 20 with a new candidate, and Claydon and Barham, where the incumbent retired. Wendy Marchant and Mike Norris survived in Needham Market, although Mike only scraped in by eight votes. In Rattlesden, Penny Otton came home fairly comfortably and John Field topped the poll in the the two-member ward of Bramford and Blakenham.

Elsewhere, Keith Scarff came up eighty-eight votes short in Stowmarket South, having lost by sixty-five on a much lower turnout in 2011, and Doug Reed lost by ninety-five in Elmswell and Norton.

On a personal note, I didn't contest Stowupland ward this time. However, there was a sting in the tale for the not so local Conservatives when Keith Welham beat Jemma Lynch by 103 votes to take the seat for the Greens.

So, how does that leave Mid Suffolk District Council?

Prior to the election, the Conservatives held twenty-two of the forty seats, with three Condependents to be counted upon, with six Liberal Democrats, four Greens (plus a reliable Independent, the wife of the Green group leader), two Suffolk Together, one Labour and one 'proper' Independent. Now, we have twenty-nine Conservatives (plus Charlie Flatman in Eye), five Greens, four Liberal Democrats and Gerard Brewster, the Independent from Stowmarket South.

So, goodbye Suffolk Together and farewell to the Labour Party in Mid Suffolk, both swept away by the Conservative tide and a massively increased turnout.

Our membership is already up since polling day, and the work begins now for 2017 and the County elections...

Creeting St Peter: it's too late @jemnicole1, your predecessor sold the pass on the Business and Enterprise Park...

In her leaflet, two weeks ago, our Conservative candidate assured us that she would

Ensure that our views regarding the proposed developments in Stowupland and Creeting St Peter are adequately represented.

I should, therefore, not have been surprised when, last week, it was announced that outline planning permission had been given for a proposed Business and Enterprise Park on the edge of our Parish. I was even less surprised when, in the East Anglian Daily Times report, the current ward councillor, Caroline Byles, popped up to say;

Initially I was very against this development. But after reading papers I have come to the conclusion this development is needed.

It would possibly be a mite cynical if I were to note that Ms Byles lives fifteen miles away from the site and is unlikely to suffer in any way from the increased noise and light pollution, loss of views and congestion caused by both the construction work and the three thousand people expected to work there.

Soon, all this won't be fields...

So much for Jemma's commitment then, given that residents of the Clamps Farm group of homes will have this on their doorstep, and that the gap between Stowmarket and the village will be halved. Worse still, with the site expected to be transferred from Creeting St Peter to Stowmarket, it is hard to envisage what benefits will accrue to us.

It is probably fair to say that local Conservatives have little interest in the voices of Creeting St Peter residents, except on the rare occasion that they want our votes. And yes, it is true that none of the other parties have made much of an effort here either, but as I expect to hear from my councillors rather more than once every four years, I feel that I have every justification for expressing dissatisfaction.

I wonder how the Greens are getting on in Stowupland...

Creeting St Peter - @jemnicole1 has a leaflet put through our door...

When I ran for the District Council in 2011, one of the things that exercised me about my Conservative opponent's campaign was her claim to be local. Given that she lived, and continues to live, in Eye, a mere fourteen miles from Creeting St Peter, and eleven miles from the ward boundary, and both the Green candidate and myself actually lived in the ward, it did rankle somewhat.

So, having finally received a leaflet from this year's Conservative candidate, Jemma Lynch, I am not entirely surprised to see her described as "the local choice for Stowupland and Creeting St Peter". If only she lived in Stowupland or Creeting St Peter, instead of Needham Market, which is the case. In fairness, Needham Market does border the parish, I think, but her declared commitment to our community is somewhat puzzling given that I've never seen her in our Parish before.

I suspect that the Green candidate this time, Keith Welham, whose home looks out onto the Green in Stowupland, and who has served as a Parish councillor in the village for some years now, might object too. 

However, looking at Jemma's priorities for our communities;

"Ensuring that our views regarding the proposed developments in Stowupland and Creeting St Peter are adequately represented."

Like her predecessor did with Poundfield Products? Or with the proposed Business and Development Park? I do hope not.

"Providing strong, proactive local leadership, seeking to support the local community."

Leadership? Support? Aren't those mildly contradictory? And how is she going to be proactive given that her only likely contact with the wider community will be attending the odd Parish Council meeting?

"Working closely with our local PCSO to ensure that residents continue to feel safe, assisting where possible with community policing."

We feel safe here, Jemma. Given crime rates here in the village, and the fact that the Parish Council interact directly with Mid Suffolk Police - they either attend all Parish Council meetings or send a report (their attendance record was, as I recall, rather better than that of your predecessor) - your generous offer isn't likely to change much.

"Endeavour to empower the local community with tools to ensure that our environment is cleaner and greener."

As Conservative-run Mid Suffolk District Council did by charging to empty litter and dog waste bins, or Conservative-run Suffolk County Council by abandoning the local Nature Reserve at Fen Alder Carr and leaving its future in the hands of a village with just 260 residents...

To be frank, I am less than entirely impressed by what looks a bit like a cut and paste, somewhat impersonal missive which seeks to sweep under the carpet the poor performance of her predecessor. 

On the positive side, a Conservative did manage to find the house - by accident, I suspect - although they clearly didn't want to talk to us.

So, hardly a temptation to vote Conservative. I wonder if the Greens have anything better to offer...

Mid Suffolk: so much for Rural Labour then...

You can tell that I live in the country, as my Twitter feed is filled with candidates telling me about their campaigning in small villages across Suffolk (well, except here in Creeting St Peter, of course). Labour candidates have been particularly active - after all, they aren't going to win in places like South Suffolk or Suffolk Coastal. At least, were they to do so, we'd be looking at a landslide that would make 1906 look close.

More practically though, one might assume that if Labour were such credible contenders, there would be an upsurge in the number of Labour candidates in places like Mid Suffolk. Well, if Mid Suffolk is anything to go by, the Conservatives need not lose too much sleep.

There are forty seats up for grabs in Mid Suffolk, and nobody has a full slate, no, not even the Conservatives. Admittedly, they give a free ride to so-called Independents in some wards (yes, we know that they're Conservatives really in most cases), but even so, they are missing the odd candidate. By comparison, Labour are running just eight candidates. Yes, eight, which may corroborate suggestions that, outside London, the Labour Party is something of a hollow shell compared to earlier decades.

Surprisingly, UKIP haven't done much better, given their claimed membership surge, with just eleven candidates. Given their success in the 2013 County Council elections and the 2014 European elections, I had expected better. Perhaps their surge is over...

The Greens, on the other hand, have managed twenty-seven candidates, which is a very good effort indeed. I'm not expecting them to make much in the way of progress, given the higher turnout generated by the General Election, which should favour the larger parties, but it might be a stepping stone to a decent showing in 2017 if they do it well. Admittedly, I don't see much evidence of much work across the District, but they are at least trying.

The Liberal Democrats have managed eighteen candidates. It isn't easy persuading people to be even paper candidates when the Party is as unpopular (in relative terms) as it is, although the response on the doorsteps is not hostile if and when you get there, I'm told. That is, perhaps, one of the prices of being in government...

There are also three independents, two candidates from Suffolk Together (which appears to be melting away) and one candidate who appears not to have a description.

Finally, there are two lucky people who can sit out polling day, as Rachel Eburne has been re-elected unopposed in Haughley and Wetherden for the Greens and Matthew Hicks likewise for the Conservatives in Worlingworth.

Creeting St Peter: the candidate doesn't even knock once...

So, nominations have closed for both the District and Parish Council elections and Creeting St Peter will go to the polls on 7 May accordingly. Yes, I know that there is a General Election, and that we'd all have to vote anyway, but the chances of a Parliamentary candidate coming our way is rather less than nil - the Conservatives sent us a leaflet for the wrong constituency in 2010, after all - so the real interest is in people who might have to come here whether they like it or not.

In 2010, the District Council ward - Stowupland - drew four candidates (I was one of them), a Conservative, a Liberal Democrat, a Green and a Labour candidate. This time, we're down to a Conservative and a Green.

The Conservative candidate, Jemma Lynch, hopes to replace the outgoing Conservative, Caroline Byles, of whom I have written so many complimentary things (that may not be entirely accurate...). She describes herself, somewhat evasively, as a single parent from Suffolk (well yes, you do need to have a qualification to run here), although she really cares for our communities. Odd, really, that she should choose to represent one that she has no obvious connection with, despite the fact that the Conservatives are only running one candidate in Needham Market, where she lives. On the other hand, she does live rather closer to the ward than Caroline did (not exactly difficult, admittedly).

According to her Twitter feed;

Great evening canvassing with @Jochurchill4 in #stowupland, I will be in #creetingstpeter on Tuesday!

— Jemma Lynch (@jemnicole1) April 9, 2015

Well, Tuesday came and went, and no sign of Jemma was there to be seen. I was disappointed, I admit, as, having no dog in this particular race, my vote is rather up for grabs - and yes, I will vote. She has now promised to come back on Saturday, but as I'll be in Needham Market for the big match, we may miss each other again...

The Green candidate is Keith Welham. He does actually live on the patch, indeed, he's a Parish councillor in Stowupland, so he should be reasonably well known. What he stands for is anyone's guess, as the rather poor quality leaflet that came out majored on planning issues - important in Stowupland, certainly, but hardly relevant here in Creeting St Peter. I did try to persuade the Greens to have him pay us a visit, but they don't seem that bothered thus far.

So, whilst I have a vote, it seems that nobody really wants it.

As for the Parish Council, there are three applicants for five places, saving us the cost of an election at least. Steve Ashcroft and Sue Lawson are relative veterans from my time as a Parish councillor, whilst Machala Peecock, who lives two doors away, replaced me when I stood down. That leaves two vacancies. Despite the apparent retirement of the Parish Clerk, I am not tempted... Well, not yet, anyway. I will be curious to see how they are handling the finances though...

So, with about a week until I get my postal ballot, I'm not actually sure what I'm going to do with the District Council one. Will either candidate care enough to try to persuade me?...

All quiet on the Mid Suffolk front...

Just fifty-eight days until polling day - we've got Parliamentary, District and Parish elections here in Creeting St Peter. Admittedly, you'd probably never know it if you were relying on one of the political parties telling you. Apart from during last year's European elections, not a leaflet of any sort has come to our home, although our District councillor may deign to pay us a visit from Eye one of these days (I'm not counting on it though...).

It shouldn't come as a surprise, really. Four years ago, despite my doing everything in my power to attract attention (what do you mean, Mark? You were delivering what? Leaflets?...), the Conservatives waited until the last four weeks before bothering to tell anyone what their councillor had done - not much, as it turned out. The year before, we had received some beautiful leaflets urging us to vote for Dr Dan Poulter. The fact that we weren't in his constituency appeared to have passed them by... although he would have been far better than David Ruffley...

In truth, this is the sort of place where democracy is relatively notional. There is little organised opposition to the Conservatives, and it becomes harder to envisage much as political parties dwindle in terms of their capacity to campaign. Rural campaigning is, in any event, more labour intensive and incumbents, especially Conservative ones, come with an inbuilt advantage. Unless someone breaks with the normal pattern whereby little happens between elections, inertia tends to be the order of the day.

At Parish level, we have five councillors in situ, and presuming that they want to continue, it is unlikely that we will have an election at all. That said, in the unlikely event that we had one, nobody would campaign anyway.

I'm going to have to seek excitement somewhere else, I guess...