And so a new year begins, this time in Dover, New Hampshire, where Ros and I are on grandparent duty. It’s been a peaceful trip, with plenty of time spent with our nearly four-year-old granddaughter and her parents, plus my stepdaughter-in-law’s family. Not exactly intense, but enjoyable nonetheless.
One should count one’s blessings, really, especially given events elsewhere. The Israeli attack on Gaza has turned from simple retaliation into something rather more sinister - and if some Israeli politicians are talking about “relocating the Palestinian population”, then the phrase “ethnic cleansing” becomes more apposite. The Israeli government, if it truly isn’t intent on crushing the civilian population of Gaza, needs to explicitly state its “war aims” and quickly. It may already be too late in the eye of global and, particularly, regional opinion.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world needs to focus on what might happen next. The destruction wrought by the IDF will require vast levels of expenditure in order to simply put a roof over the heads of two million people, let alone restore the infrastructure needed to enable Palestinians to manage their communities effectively. But, if Hamas return and continue their strategy of using the local population as a shield against Israeli retaliation, is anyone going to want to do much more than provide basic shelter and sustenance? What is the strategy for a long-term solution and is there an audience for it?
Slightly closer to home, the Russian assault on Ukraine continues. I’ve always accepted the view espoused from the Baltics in particular that the Russians have to be stopped conclusively, and that Ukrainians are fighting on a frontline rather broader than just their own. The philosophical difference between the Russian approach - “we can outlast our opponents” - as opposed to a sense that we in the rest of Europe don’t value our free, democratic societies sufficiently highly, encourages the Russians to keep coming. And, at some point, you have to say that enough is enough, and mean it. We really do have to mean it now.
At home, 2024 promises a General Election. Given that we have a Government which appears to have no real competence - forget its policies (and I try to), it’s the inability to understand how governance works - and is now reduced to setting elephant traps for an incoming Labour administration rather than doing something, anything, that might make our country better, the sense that we must be rid of the lot of them is almost overwhelming. And it needs to be a crushing defeat in order that they might learn something from it.
Admittedly, my expectation is that the lesson the survivors will learn is that they weren’t right-wing enough and were too nice to the poor and vulnerable amongst us. The idea that the people who brought us Brexit and Rwanda, and who mainstreamed an approach to governance that should horrify reasonable people might conclude that a move towards the political centre is appropriate is… unlikely.
We will end up with a government which will mean well (mostly) but will chafe at attempting the sorts of reforms that we desperately need. In fairness, the financial inheritance will be poor, and a risk-averse Labour leadership will see little benefit in picking fights with pretty much anyone for fear of being a one-term administration.
From a personal perspective, I’m not really sure what goals I have for 2024. In career terms, I’m approaching what might reasonably be described as my “twilight years”, and my level of political activity is not what it was - it’s hard to be optimistic as a bureaucrat in a state run by people who not only begrudge your existence but actively undermine the integrity of government every day. That said, the rest of my life is pretty fulfilling and the move to Ipswich has simplified our lives immeasurably.
So, let’s see what a new year has to offer, and hopefully it will bring you, gentle reader, most, hopefully all, of what you wish for…
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