How you (don’t) end up with a May General Election

There’s been a lot of debate about when Rishi Sunak will choose to go to the country, and a range of theories have been offered, many of them entertaining, credible or logical. And, evidently, with the Conservatives holed beneath the waterline, opposition parties would really like to get on with things.

But, the more I think about it, the harder it gets to formulate a credible path to a May election.

Yes, it’s entirely possible that things get worse as time passes, suggesting that a May election might limit the scale of the seemingly inevitable defeat to be suffered. But we’re already talking about the loss of half of the current Conservatives’ Parliamentary Party so, how much worse could it get?

And the key decision maker is Rishi Sunak, who has been in post for little more than a year. Why would he give up some of the time available to him for so little personal advantage?

Ah, but yes, I hear you reply, he isn’t loved by his own party, and the MPs could get rid of him in order to go in May. Theoretically, they could, but the idea of a leadership contest in the run-up to a spring election would make them look even more shambolic. There’s also the question of whether or not such a process could be concluded in time, and that becomes less likely with every passing day.

The May local elections are likely to be bad for the Conservatives, with their position relative to 2021, when these seats were last fought, a pretty poor one (they then polled 36% against Labour’s 29% and our 17%), but it’s been a while since a ruling Party concerned itself terribly with its local government base when thinking about electoral strategy. So, I don’t see that as a factor in decision making either, even if they might retrospectively regret that.

But for me, the best reason to expect an October election is the human one - hope. This Government is increasingly unlikely to see any substantial improvement in the economy anytime soon - GDP has flatlined, inflation, particularly as it impacts on the less well off, is still an issue, and mortgage payers will see their payments increase as their fixed rate deals expire. But you never entirely know what will happen, and an early election means that you’ll never find out.

So, I’m hoping for a quiet April, with some potential light leafleting in Ipswich, where we elect in thirds, and are defending St Margaret’s ward. We’ll see if I’m right soon enough, I guess…