How do you solve a problem like Donald, Theresa?

It has been a bit of a train wreck so far, hasn't it? However, whilst the air of chaos that surrounds the new incumbent in the White House shows no signs of abating, he is getting a worrying amount done. And, if you're a European or even British, what he has done so far is cause for some perturbation.

On trade, whilst there are perhaps grounds for axing the Trans Pacific Partnership, in doing so the way he has, he has undermined key relationships in a volatile region, where China seeks to maximise its power, soft and hard. If the Japanese and the South Koreans, in particular, sense that America is not engaged, they will be obliged to take a more respectful stance towards China. And, from the perspective of his near neighbourhood, his ruthless jettisoning of TPP, and the attempts to bully Mexico, spell trouble for NAFTA.

It does not augur well for a UK/US trade agreement, does it?

Now I accept that Trump has expressed a desire to do a deal, and heaven only knows that the Brexiteers desperately want to believe that he means it, but the problem is that he has a history of making deals that end badly for the other party and, more worryingly, for a bunch of innocent bystanders too. If he can bully the other side, he will, especially when they're desperate. And boy, are we going to be desperate.

It is already becoming apparent that a number of key potential partners, India, China, Australia, for example, are happy to do deals, but that relative freedom of movement comes with any such arrangements. Can Theresa May get over her hang-ups over migration figures, and even if she can, what will those who voted Brexit to cut migration think about being poorer AND having a bunch of foreigners coming into the country?

So, 'white' countries it will have to be. An all encompassing deal with the 'evil' European Union seems unlikely, and Australia and New Zealand are relatively small economies far away. That only really leaves the America Firsters, led by a man with a hair trigger ego advised by a man who wants to bring everything down. That's certainly not a negotiation I would enter with confidence and, to make matters worse, we already run a trade surplus with the US. Donald won't like that.

Oh yes, we could cut a deal with the rather sclerotic Japanese economy, or try to sell agricultural goods to the Koreans, but you can see our options withering away unless we're willing to compromise. And that, it seems, the Brexiteers are uncomfortable with.

It does, potentially, get worse. If the trend towards regional blocs continues, being outside of them all may make you nimbler, but it also makes you lonely and vulnerable to protectionism. And, you may have to sacrifice parts of your social model if national wealth diminishes in real terms, or grows less strongly than it might otherwise have done. There'll be plenty of people who voted for Brexit who won't like that either.

Now, is Theresa lying awake at night worrying about this? I suspect not. The more charitable might suggest that, as she is a woman of principle, doing what she believes to be the right thing, she has no reason to worry. In any event, the Opposition are insipid, or fragmented, or too few in number to really hurt her. I have a nasty feeling that she doesn't have the imagination to work out how badly this could (and I emphasise could) end up. If she did, she certainly wouldn't be able to sleep easily at night.

No, a combination of the Administration's apparent retreat from the strong dollar, a headstrong President and his belief that deals should favour America, leaves the British trade team with a potentially very challenging assignment. And we're fielding Liam Fox.

We're doomed, aren't we?...

Reflections on a 'Special Relationship'

So, Theresa has visited the Donald, and reaffirmed the Special Relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom. She'll doubtless be pleased that she has been seen with the new President before any other major leader, and timing does matter. He's said the right things from her perspective too, as The Times puts it on its front page this morning;

Trump blesses Britain

It does come at a cost though. She has been blessed by a man whose popularity in this country is rather less than that of Jeremy Corbyn, and whose views on a range of key policy areas are a long way from the apparent mainstream of British politics (now I come to think about it, a bit like Jeremy Corbyn). Indeed, in some circles, his views are seen as mad and dangerous. Being pictured holding hands with such a man might not look quite so good when your political opponents have had a chance to play with the images. Mind you, it does beg the question, "Why were you holding hands anyway?".

Theresa will argue that she is influencing Donald in a more measured direction, but I fear that she has allowed her ego and her tin ear to camouflage the reality, that Donald will do whatever Donald wants unless his core advisors can persuade him otherwise. And given that many of them have little experience of government, and appear to have been chosen for their business reputations rather than any understanding of public service, I wouldn't count on that happening much.

My fear is that there will be a price to pay for Donald's blessing. If you're a free trade Conservative, being allied to an America Firster, whose first major trade pronouncements have all been protectionist, you might wonder how this can be reconciled with the idea of signing a great trade deal between our two countries. Deals that can be terminated with thirty days notice might be fine in the hands of people with a measured approach to trade disputes, but might not be so stable in the hands of a man willing to build a big wall and then attempt to charge it to the people most damaged by it.

If you believe that we need to have a mutually beneficial relationship with the European Union post-Brexit, finding yourself allied to a man who is actively calling for its destruction might not enhance the prospects of an amicable divorce. After all, for the Europeans, this is existential in its threat, and Theresa may yet find herself having to choose between an unreliable partner (Donald) and an angry one (the European Union). Trying to agree a beneficial divorce settlement with an angry ex is not a bowl of cherries. And, of course, once Article 50 is triggered, the balance of power in negotiations lies squarely with the European Union.

And, if you believe in 'taking back control', the sight of a British Prime Minister rushing to support a man with such unfortunate views might be an unhappy reminder that we are not the major player we were given to believe we might still be.

In truth, for the time being, Theresa can probably get away with it. A huge opinion poll lead, an inept, disorganised rabble as the Official Opposition, and a compliant media means that it will be some time before the impact of Brexit starts to impact on Conservative support. We haven't even left yet, so the prophets of doom for the British economy haven't really been tested, whilst the markets are still responding erratically to perceived clues in statements made by people who may not have one.

Time will tell, as they say. But I fear that Theresa will find herself forced to choose a side eventually, Europe or an isolationist America. Because the only things you find in the middle of the road are white lines and dead armadillos...