Reflections on a 'Special Relationship'

So, Theresa has visited the Donald, and reaffirmed the Special Relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom. She'll doubtless be pleased that she has been seen with the new President before any other major leader, and timing does matter. He's said the right things from her perspective too, as The Times puts it on its front page this morning;

Trump blesses Britain

It does come at a cost though. She has been blessed by a man whose popularity in this country is rather less than that of Jeremy Corbyn, and whose views on a range of key policy areas are a long way from the apparent mainstream of British politics (now I come to think about it, a bit like Jeremy Corbyn). Indeed, in some circles, his views are seen as mad and dangerous. Being pictured holding hands with such a man might not look quite so good when your political opponents have had a chance to play with the images. Mind you, it does beg the question, "Why were you holding hands anyway?".

Theresa will argue that she is influencing Donald in a more measured direction, but I fear that she has allowed her ego and her tin ear to camouflage the reality, that Donald will do whatever Donald wants unless his core advisors can persuade him otherwise. And given that many of them have little experience of government, and appear to have been chosen for their business reputations rather than any understanding of public service, I wouldn't count on that happening much.

My fear is that there will be a price to pay for Donald's blessing. If you're a free trade Conservative, being allied to an America Firster, whose first major trade pronouncements have all been protectionist, you might wonder how this can be reconciled with the idea of signing a great trade deal between our two countries. Deals that can be terminated with thirty days notice might be fine in the hands of people with a measured approach to trade disputes, but might not be so stable in the hands of a man willing to build a big wall and then attempt to charge it to the people most damaged by it.

If you believe that we need to have a mutually beneficial relationship with the European Union post-Brexit, finding yourself allied to a man who is actively calling for its destruction might not enhance the prospects of an amicable divorce. After all, for the Europeans, this is existential in its threat, and Theresa may yet find herself having to choose between an unreliable partner (Donald) and an angry one (the European Union). Trying to agree a beneficial divorce settlement with an angry ex is not a bowl of cherries. And, of course, once Article 50 is triggered, the balance of power in negotiations lies squarely with the European Union.

And, if you believe in 'taking back control', the sight of a British Prime Minister rushing to support a man with such unfortunate views might be an unhappy reminder that we are not the major player we were given to believe we might still be.

In truth, for the time being, Theresa can probably get away with it. A huge opinion poll lead, an inept, disorganised rabble as the Official Opposition, and a compliant media means that it will be some time before the impact of Brexit starts to impact on Conservative support. We haven't even left yet, so the prophets of doom for the British economy haven't really been tested, whilst the markets are still responding erratically to perceived clues in statements made by people who may not have one.

Time will tell, as they say. But I fear that Theresa will find herself forced to choose a side eventually, Europe or an isolationist America. Because the only things you find in the middle of the road are white lines and dead armadillos...