Mid Suffolk: the Local Government Boundary Commission for England tries again...

Readers might recall that, three weeks ago, I noted that the proposed new ward boundaries for Mid Suffolk had been delayed. It now transpires that they weren’t wildly convinced by the population predictions offered to them by the District Council and, as it turned out, they indeed contained some anomalies, as pointed out by some of the Parish Councils. And so, it was back to the drawing board in the light of some revised data.

For Creeting St Peter, there is no change from the original proposals, in that we are included in the expanded Needham Market ward, a notional Liberal Democrat seat, I would guess, given that it mostly comprises of the town itself, held at District Council level since 1991, and four outlying parishes which have all returned a Liberal Democrat councillor at County or District level in the past decade... except one. Yes, that’s right, Creeting St Peter. I did try in 2011, honest, but we did win the vote in the Parish in that election if my box count was even halfway accurate.

There are some interesting adjustments, with Stowupland being combined with Old Newton, Haughley and Wetherden to form a two member ward which must be an excellent prospect for the local Greens, given that they hold both Haughley and Wetherden and Stowupland wards currently.

Barking and Somersham, the scene of a Green upset in 2016, gets torn apart, with Somersham going into the proposed new Blakenham ward, and the remainder going into Ringshall and Battisford, a potential three way contest between the Greens, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Much there will depend on how the Conservative vote holds up and who is seen as the most credible alternative.

Despite the loss of six councillors overall (from forty to thirty-four), Stowmarket keeps its seven councillors, but instead of being divided into three wards (North, Central and South), there will now be three two-member wards (Chilton, based on the northern estate of the same name, Combs Ford, broadly equivalent to the old South ward and Stow Thorney, which is everything east of the railway line). The central part of the town will become St Peter’s, and have one councillor.

And, whilst these are all provisional, it would be helpful if they weren’t changed again, as Election Day is less than fourteen months away...

Mid Suffolk - the Local Government Boundary Commission for England rethinks?

We’ve been awaiting the final recommendations for new ward boundaries here in Mid Suffolk for some time, and whilst the proposals are put out for final consultation are not to everyone’s liking (and that includes the Liberal Democrats), they did look like an imaginative and credible solution to the problems caused by a combination of rapid growth in Stowmarket and a reduction in the number of councillors to thirty-four from the current forty.

Creeting St Peter was proposed to be transferred from Stowupland ward into Needham Market ward, which would at least give me a reasonable prospect of living in a Liberal Democrat ward for the first time since I left East Dulwich in 2007.

The final proposals were due to be published two weeks ago, on 6 February, but on the day itself, all went quiet. So, I wrote to the LGBCE’s press office;

Dear Sir/Madam, 

I was led to understand that the final recommendations were due to be published today, until the website was updated at some point this morning to change the date to ‘TBC’. 

Is it possible to find out what the issue is that has caused the delay, and when might we find out what the final recommendations are?

Now, in truth, I wasn’t expecting a rapid response. I know the score as a public official, there is never enough time to answer random questions from ordinary members of the public, but, to my surprise, a reply came back the next morning;

Dear Cllr Valladares

The Commission has delayed publication of its final recommendations for its Mid Suffolk and Babergh reviews. We are currently examining the electorate data and forecasts that underpin all the recommendations and will be in a position to make a further announcement about the completion of both reviews following the Commission’s next meeting on 20 February. We will update the website immediately following that meeting and directly contact everyone who has taken part in the reviews thus far shortly after that.

 Apologies for the delay. Marcus --Marcus BowellDirector of Strategy and CommunicationsLGBCE

I have to admit that I was impressed. And so, the wait goes on, although today in 21 February, and there’s no sign of an update. It’s early days though, and our elections aren’t until next May, so we wait with bated breath...

The Boundary Commission proposals for Creeting St Peter

I ended yesterday's post by noting that the proposals for new boundaries were of interest in so far as they related to Creeting St Peter. I should explain, I guess.

Prior to the last round of boundary changes, the village formed part of The Stonhams ward, combining with Stonham Aspal, Earl Stonham, Stonham Parva and Creeting St Mary. It elected a Liberal Democrat councillor and was a neat enough fit. Unfortunately, that round of boundary changes stripped the ward of our village, throwing us with the metropolis that is Stowupland.

The proposals made by the three political parties each had a different plan for Creeting St Peter.

The Conservatives wanted a rather sprawling ward, including all of the Stonhams, Mickfield and Wetheringsett. Frankly, I didn't fancy it much, although it would include a heritage railway with quite a good real ale bar when the Mid Suffolk Light Railway was open.

The Greens wanted to keep Stowupland and Creeting St Peter together, adding Earl Stonham to make up the numbers. That meant keeping splitting both the Creetings and the Stonhams, which never felt like a going concern.

The Liberal Democrats proposed the recreation of the old The Stonhams ward, adding Mickfield to make up the numbers. I feared that it wasn't quite big enough, although it offered an interesting campaign opportunity for yours truly.

What nobody had considered, myself included, was the option of looking south. That is, until the Boundary Commission's experts had their go at solving the Mid Suffolk Rubik's cube...

They came up with an expanded Needham Market ward, retaining its two member nature by bolting on some new territory - Creeting St Mary to the east, Creeting St Peter to the north-east, plus Darmsden and Baylham to the south. Now, that would mean that we now live in what is notionally a Liberal Democrat ward. It would also mean that, if the proposals are adopted, I would be represented on the District Council by the woman who recruited my wife to the Party.

Naturally, I'm of the view that the draft proposals are a work of genius. All I have to hope for is that nobody persuades them to change their minds...

Mid Suffolk: the Boundary Commission proposes an unexpected outcome...

I had meant to mention the current Boundary Commission review of Mid Suffolk's ward boundaries, in which the District Council loses six councillors, going from forty to thirty-four, which requires, as you might guess, some interesting reshuffling.

Unlike in London, where redistributing means drawing entertaining lines of maps and crossing your fingers that the other political parties don't work out what you're doing (I do those who study these things a disservice here admittedly...), in Suffolk you have a set of building blocks known as towns and parishes. Rule one is, "thou shalt not split up parishes", which simplifies and complicates the process in equal measure.

The job of the Boundary Commission is thus to create a number of wards which have an amount of electors within 10% of the average number of electors per councillor. That can be done by means of one member or two member wards, but you don't want them to be too large in geographic terms.

There were three political proposals made, one from the Greens, one from the Conservatives and one from us. You'll notice that there wasn't a proposal from Labour, but as they don't actually have a councillor in Mid Suffolk, I guess that they weren't that bothered. Slightly bizarrely, our local Green councillor admitted that they had agreed a joint proposal with the Conservatives, but that the Conservatives had reneged on the deal late in the day. That does beg the question as to why the Greens thought that doing a deal with the Conservatives was a good idea, but it does perhaps indicate that the Greens are either more naive than I had thought possible or, more troubling my, that they might not be reliable in their opposition to the ruling administration.

In any event, none of the three proposals seemed to have an awful lot to recommend them. The Conservative proposal required there to be thirty-five councillors, i.e. one more than the specified number, which perhaps serves as a reminder as to the quality of some of the local Conservatives. The Green proposals, for there turned out to be two versions, seemed not to understand the importance of the 10% variance from the mean, as they often failed by producing wards that were too big or too small. The Liberal Democrat proposal was better, but still not ideal.

It appears that the Boundary Commission weren't wildly impressed either, as their draft proposals, issued on Monday, differ from all of them. And, from an initial look, I reckon that they've done a pretty good job.

From a personal perspective, the most interesting element is the one that affects me most. And it wasn't what I was expecting...

Mid Suffolk: will I be in a different District ward for 2019?

I have suspected for some time that, with Stowmarket growing like Topsy, the distribution of Mid Suffolk District Council's forty council seats was becoming increasing distorted. And today, there is news that someone who matters agrees with me, as I see that there will indeed be boundary proposals to take effect for the 2019 elections.

It turns out that Stowmarket North has about 31% more voters than it should (might building the Cedars Park estate have something to do with that?), and so a redistribution is needed.

Assuming that Stowmarket gets an extra councillor, which I think is likely, a ripple effect will mean shuffling the host of small villages across the District (and some of us are pretty small) to form viable units. And, as Creeting St Peter is one of the smaller parishes, and currently forms a small fraction of the Stowupland ward, I would guess that we're vulnerable in that sense. Indeed, we were part of The Stonhams ward until 2007, with Creeting St Mary, Earl Stonham and Stonham Aspal - held by Tony Fowler for the Liberal Democrats.

What I've learned is that, to get elected, it helps to live in the ward around here. It also helps to either live in the dominant village by population in that ward, or to live in a ward made up of a number of villages so that you have a reasonable shot at building support across them all.

In 2011, I lost my campaign in Stowupland ward for a number of reasons. Having the election on the same day as the AV referendum wasn't helpful, as a high vote against favoured the Conservatives. Being a Liberal Democrat didn't help, as we were about as popular as anthrax amongst some Labour and Green voters and I needed their support. And, whilst I did very well in my own village, where people knew me, I had a bit of a hill to climb in Stowupland.

I might have had a better chance in The Stonhams, as I'm a small village sort of person, and it requires commitment, organisation and discipline to run a campaign across a number of locations. Luckily, I have Ros to supply the organisation and discipline. And, once engaged, I have a surprising amount of enthusiasm.

As a Liberal Democrat with a sense of geography, I will doubtless offer some thoughts on how best the new boundaries might be drawn. And we do need to engage with the process, as we have seats to defend in 2019 and should be seeking to add to that number from a relatively low base.

So, watch this space. It could be unexpectedly interesting...