Venezuela: Maduro gets his retaliation in first...

I’ve written here before about Venezuela, a potentially wealthy country brought to its knees by first corruption, then quasi-imperial overreach and finally rampant paranoia. And I return to the subject following the news that President Maduro, a man ill-equipped to run a bath, let alone a country, has decided that, following a widespread boycott of recent municipal elections, those Opposition parties who chose to join the boycott will be barred from contesting next year's Presidential election.

It should come as no real surprise, given his nonchalant disregard for the democratic process. He has, after all, subverted Parliament by creating a Constituent Assembly in his own image to override it, removed an uncompliant Chief Prosecutor (who, by the way, is in The Hague trying to bring a case against him in the International Criminal Court) and done everything possible to paralyse the Opposition in the country.

All of this, remember, against a backdrop of a collapsing economy, with inflation at 650% and expected to reach 2,300% next year, the country said to be in selective default of its debts and with the average Venezuelan thought to have lost 9 kilos in weight in the past year - Venezuela imports much of its foodstuff.

The Maduro Administration still has some friends - the Russians have deferred $3 billion in debts over ten years - but with $140 billion in debts, just $9.6 billion in reserves and an income stream heavily dependent on oil sales to the United States, it is only a matter of time before the wheels fall off completely.

This has been a slow motion train wreck, in plain sight of the world, in a supposedly developed country, and yet there appears to be no will to do very much. One can see why, perhaps. There is no grounds for military intervention, as Venezuela is no real threat to anyone, and the Government is clearly immune to persuasion. Aid is difficult as the chances of it reaching ordinary Venezuelans is remote, unless they support the Government. And a boycott of Venezuelan oil is likely to put prices up - an unpopular notion - and cause even greater hardship amongst the people.

What remains is to continue to condemn the Maduro administration both as individual states and as collections of states, explaining to the Government that their behaviour is unacceptable, and that assistance is conditional, hoping that desperation leads them back to democracy.

It’s a long game, and the Venezuelan people are likely to suffer more before it reaches a conclusion. One can only hope that, should they be driven to revolution, that it be quick and relatively merciful and that the outside world stays out of it - Latin America has seen enough outside interference over the past two hundred years and needs no more.

May God have mercy on the Venezuelan people - they need all of the help that they can get...

Venezuela Day 3: a nation votes, a bureaucrat takes a stroll (and a train ride)...

Polling day dawned mostly sunny and quiet which, in itself, was something given recent electoral history here. I don't have a role here - this is an entirely private trip - but thought that it might be nice to get a feel for the atmosphere.

Security was definitely heightened around the hotel, but there was a lengthy queue outside the polling station across the street from the El Recreo mall when I passed it at 11 a.m. Apparently, voters were keen to vote early in case of trouble later, but all seemed peaceful enough.

Voting started at 6 a.m. (so much for good morning leaflets then...) and ended at 6 p.m., which is sensible given the increased risk of crime during the hours of darkness. It is computerised, as is the count, so results should, theoretically, come quickly.

I was off to see the National Assembly building though, across town. After all, it did seem a pity not to take a look around. The hotel lobby appeared to have a pair of UNASUR observers in it, observing who knew what at 11 a.m. But I was on my way back to the Metro to catch Linea 1 to El Capitolio, only to find that rides were free (admittedly, the fares are so low that they might as well not charge). 

The National Assembly building is picturesque, if surprisingly unimposing, which came as a bit of a surprise. In a lot of places, Parliament is designed to impress, and given the oil wealth that Venezuela theoretically has, you might have expected a ghastly, concrete monstrosity to be built to replace the nineteenth century building. But no, the building sits nicely alongside Plaza Bolivar, with its statue of the Liberator on his horse.

It was all very calm, very tranquil, with people doing what people do on a warm Sunday morning, sitting on benches, playing with children, chatting away as if nothing particularly exciting was happening.

I walked through the quiet streets of downtown Caracas, and back to the Metro for a journey to La Rinconada, at the end of Linea 2 (still free). At La Rinconada, there is a connection to the railway line to Cúa and, as I like stations, it seemed like something to photograph.

As it turned out, the station wasn't that interesting, a new steel and glass job. However, the trains were free too, and so it was time to explore for real. The train heads southwards out of Caracas, through forests and hills, with some impressive tunnelling to enable the modern trains to make good speed up the Tuy valley. It was very pretty, green countryside.

Cúa was a bit of a surprise. The main town of Urdeneta municipality, in Miranda state, you step out of the modern station and into something that resembled the Mumbai suburbs. Actually, the not so nice Mumbai suburbs. The municipal market had that familiar smell of raw meat that could probably have benefitted from refrigeration rather than six hours at 29 degrees Celsius. It was peaceful enough though, despite being a relative bastion of support for President Maduro and the PSUV.

Time to leave, I thought.

Back in the city, things were even quieter than they had been in the morning. It was 4p.m. and the crowd outside the polling station at El Recreo had shrunk, the queue gone. I took the gentle hint and headed back to the hotel to await the results...

It's not looking promising in the Bolivarian Republic

ALL EYES ARE ON #VENEZUELA https://t.co/FkiyLBZ64W @liberalinternat pic.twitter.com/7wpnNQdhzz

— ALDE Group (@ALDEgroup) November 15, 2015

Inflation officially at 68.5% (that is, what it was when the Central Bank stopped publishing the data last December - it may be as high as 700% now), a chicken costing $219 at the official exchange rate, the gold reserves being sold off to pay maturing debt and national GDP thought to have fallen by about 10% this year - not perhaps the ideal circumstances to be fighting an election in if you're the governing party.

And it gets worse. The First Lady's nephews have been arrested in Haiti and extradited to the United States on charges of conspiring to smuggle cocaine, the economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports, and the Organization of American States has signaled concerns about the legitimacy of the election arrangements, calling for international observers to be invited. 

But yes, Venezuela goes to the polls on 6 December, with President Maduro declaring that he will “not hand over the revolution.” That outcome, he warned, would force him to govern “with the people in a civil-military union.”. In other words, the opposition might win the vote, but they might not gain power.

And they'll have to go some, despite being as much as 20% ahead in the opinion polls. Constituencies have been gerrymandered, the press censored, opposition leaders jailed, voters bribed and there are fears that polling stations will be arranged to maximize the pro-government vote.

ALDE has called for democratic elections and a peaceful transition, something that I think most of us could support. Watch this space...