Wednesday, November 18, 2015

It's not looking promising in the Bolivarian Republic

Inflation officially at 68.5% (that is, what it was when the Central Bank stopped publishing the data last December - it may be as high as 700% now), a chicken costing $219 at the official exchange rate, the gold reserves being sold off to pay maturing debt and national GDP thought to have fallen by about 10% this year - not perhaps the ideal circumstances to be fighting an election in if you're the governing party.

And it gets worse. The First Lady's nephews have been arrested in Haiti and extradited to the United States on charges of conspiring to smuggle cocaine, the economy is almost entirely dependent on oil exports, and the Organization of American States has signaled concerns about the legitimacy of the election arrangements, calling for international observers to be invited. 

But yes, Venezuela goes to the polls on 6 December, with President Maduro declaring that he will “not hand over the revolution.” That outcome, he warned, would force him to govern “with the people in a civil-military union.”. In other words, the opposition might win the vote, but they might not gain power.

And they'll have to go some, despite being as much as 20% ahead in the opinion polls. Constituencies have been gerrymandered, the press censored, opposition leaders jailed, voters bribed and there are fears that polling stations will be arranged to maximize the pro-government vote.

ALDE has called for democratic elections and a peaceful transition, something that I think most of us could support. Watch this space...

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