Monday, February 10, 2014

The Swiss to become poster children for second order consequentials?

This weekend's referendum vote by the Swiss to impose strict migration levels into the Confederation is a demonstration of how the political understanding of the implication of free movement of people is not shared by a significant chunk of voters. The Swiss people may now be about to find out just how far the world has moved on.

One presumes that, in order to enforce this, they will need to tighten border controls, which will make life a little more annoying, but that is entirely their choice, and it will give Government, at both the Federal and cantonal levels, more control over population levels. So far, so good, presumably.

However, the Swiss have to get out of the country, and being surrounded by the European Union on all sides, the unanswered question thus far is, "What will the European Union do in response?".

Early suggestions include a review of trade access agreements, and a restriction on the right of Swiss citizens to live and work in the European Union, neither of which is likely to do the Swiss economy much good.

Many Swiss voters, especially those who voted 'yes' in the referendum, may not have understood the potential consequences of voting as they did, as they aren't direct beneficiaries of free trade and free movement of people, and it is perhaps a failure of those who do understand to make the case, but they may not like what happens next much.

I'm going to Vienna in May, and had in mind a pretty journey by train from Zurich. But, as I'm seemingly somewhat unwelcome in Switzerland, perhaps I ought to take a different route instead. For no country is an island any more, and the Swiss might find themselves dwelling on that point in the weeks and months ahead.

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