The musings of a liberal and an internationalist, living in Suffolk's county town. There may be references to parish councils, bureaucracy and travel, amongst other things. And yes, I'm a Liberal Democrat.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
The eyes of the world are turned towards Washington DC
The British have always felt more at home with a Democrat in the White House, regardless of the affability or competence of the man himself, and I suspect that this is due to the chasm in ideology between Europe and the US.
Even the British, with our so-called special relationship, find Republicans hard work. The fixation with guns and religion is alien to most of us, given that we've banned handguns and licenced everything else. As for religion, we tend to the view that our faith, or lack thereof, is a private matter, not to be broadcast. Even the evangelical movement here is rooted in the Afro-Caribbean community, and hasn't really penetrated the consciousness of the rest of the population.
We're also more internationalist in our outlook. Whilst Kennedy, Clinton and Obama had travelled widely prior to their election, and not just to fight, many Republican contenders have been less travelled. Our experiences within a common Europe engender a belief in collective action, whereas Republicans tend to the view that, given that they have the capability, they can act alone, at least to some extent.
Bill Clinton was so popular here that, even in the midst of the impeachment hearings, his approval rating was 63%. Regardless of what he did at home, he was felt to be willing to persuade allies to act in concert, rather than browbeat them into acquiescence. His support for the Northern Ireland peace process was invaluable, and the warmth of the welcome given to him when he visited Belfast was utterly genuine.
George W Bush will be irredeemably linked to the invasion of Iraq, an action opposed by the majority of the British people, and the cause of too many resented deaths of young servicemen and women. Regardless of the validity of the invasion, it was felt that the US was ignoring the international framework for conflict resolution, faulty and ineffectual though it has often been.
We also struggle with questions related to the role of government. There is a far greater sense that government has an active role in building a better society, whereas Americans, particularly Republicans tend to be suspicious of 'big government'.
And so we welcome President Obama. He represents politics that we can relate to, but with added charisma and a sense of romance that we aspire to. He looks like a statesman, sounds like one too. The only worry is that we expect too much of him, but he's clever, articulate and appears to be managing our expectations closer to reality.
I wish him well...
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Gaza: the war is over (sort of), let the stupidity begin
That's the theory. Unfortunately, it looks as if we will end up with the worst of all worlds. Hamas have picked up where they left off, with seven rockets already launched into southern Israel, and the Israel Defence Force responding with air attacks on the sites from whence the rockets came. Neither side has peace or security, and the likelihood is that the Israelis will feel totally justified in repeating the whole bloodstained process of attack all over again.
To be blunt, the 'international community', one of those meaningless terms we all fall back on, has failed to achieve very much, and it is public opinion that has led the way. However, public opinion can only do so much, and it is time for moderate Arab nations to step in and provide support for those forces for civil society in Gaza who might create the basis for an administration focussed on building a sound economy, a strong democracy and a secure environment for both.
If Hamas are serious about being part of the process of building a viable Palestinian state, they need to accept that using the population of Gaza as a human shield is, to put it mildly, unhelpful. Given the imbalance in terms of strike power, the pain and suffering is always going to fall disproportionately on civilians in Gaza.
This is not to say that responsibility for this tragedy falls wholly on Hamas. I fully accept that some Israeli actions have been provocative and deliberately so. However, a state can be influenced by other nations in a way that a freedom fighting/terrorist (your choice) organisation cannot. The United Nations and the European Union can withdraw co-operation from Israel through bi-lateral agreements on culture, trade or whatever. We don't have those links with Hamas.
So, as liberals and internationalists, we must channel our passions into lobbying governments, and not just our own, into doing something concrete towards a lasting peace. Otherwise, I'll see you on another demo in five years time...
The concessionary fare scheme for buses - good news and bad news
Here is the November prediction for forward inflation, courtesy of the Bank of England... As you can see, the Bank is predicting inflation as averaging about 1% over the two years. Therefore, presuming that grants remain at the level stated, there will be a little bit of slack available.
And that's where the good news ends. Sadly, there appear to be a number of cases where local councils are finding that the costs exceed the grant quite considerably.
Ros and I visited Teignbridge last year, and Cllr Alan Connett noted his concern about the looming gap between the grant and the additional expenditure that was being incurred. If spending turns out to exceed the grant, local councils will be forced to make choices as to what to cut, in order to meet the difference.
Given that District Councils are bearing the brunt of the cuts in local government grant support, and that capping will be applied to any council seeking to raise its precept by more than 5%, this will be all the more difficult to manage. Worst of all, it is virtually impossible to manage demand, especially for those authorities which attract large numbers of tourists.
I sense from Lord Adonis's answer to Ros's question that he really didn't fancy answering the question because, in answering the question, he will demonstrate that, once again, the Government has bought some short term popularity at the cost of locally provided services. And of course, who will be held accountable? Yes, you guessed it, the local councils that will have to cut services to fulfil someone else's gift...
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Conservatives: it's not ideas, it's money that will gain us power...
The political strategy appears to be to oppose anything that is unpopular, suggest that you're thinking about doing things that appear popular, and state that you wouldn't have managed the economy in the same way that Labour did. In normal circumstances, that might have been enough. However, in the gathering crisis, voters are keen to see something being done. I'm not convinced that there is a sense at to what that is, but the sense of activity is vaguely reassuring.
The Conservatives have responded with a flurry of speeches which, when analysed, give little steer as to what their underpinning philosophy is. Unconvincing on tax cuts, unconvincing on the role of government, unconvincing on the environment or the economy, their support is founded on not being Labour, rather than on being for anything.
Clearly, there is a realisation that this is the case at the top of the Conservative Party, and this comment, from their Treasurer, when asked if it meant he was trying to crush Labour financially;
Now I am not so naive to think that money has no place in politics. In order to get the message across, a political party needs resources, both financial and human. However, if the leading opposition party needs to 'blow its opponent out of the water' in order to win the argument, it implies that what they are offering isn't that great. Add the advantages of favourable media coverage, and you really worry about the ability of the Conservatives to make a positive case to earn voter support.
South West Trains: not telling the whole story
"Subject to consultation with staff, our plans will involve a reduction of around 480 management, administration and other roles across the company. Train drivers, guards and frontline fleet maintenance staff are not affected by these proposed changes."Whilst the notion that there are so many people whose jobs can be axed without impacting on services to passengers is, to a cynical mind, unlikely, it appears that I have much to be cynical about. The press release continues;
"Our priority throughout this process has been to protect the core frontline service and excellent performance we currently provide to our customers."
So, you could reasonably expect that the service to passengers will be maintained at its current level, couldn't you?
But no, for the BBC have uncovered the truth. 93 full-time and 87 part-time ticket office jobs are to go, along with 62 full-time and 9 part-time platform jobs. That would be 251 roles, 52% of the total under threat. Passengers will find it harder to buy the cheapest ticket for their journey, will find it harder to get help when they need it and will feel less safe when they travel.
At least the trains will run, won't they? Well, yes and no. The BBC have also discovered that South West Trains are now running nearly 100 shorter trains every day. Once again, weasel words from a rail franchise to disguise a drop in standards...
It's a streetcar, but not as I know it...
Friday, January 16, 2009
MP expenses: we've got a longer memory than they thought
However, I am surprised and disappointed that they have so badly misjudged public opinion. At a time when politicians are the subject of almost universal disrespect (some earned, some not), and personal finances are under strain, why they believe that they have a unique right to privacy is beyond me. Indeed, why they feel that the public should just let matters go on as they have is equally a mystery.
There is no doubt that MP salaries and expenses are an increasingly uncomfortable fudge, designed to keep headline pay levels comparatively low (note that I don't say low) whilst providing levels of effective remuneration commensurate with their perceived value. Unfortunately, Labour's willingness to legislate for freedom of information has not always been matched by an understanding of the implications of doing so, and situations like this arise as a result.
I have said in the past that the salary levels for MP's are not competitive with those in similar jobs, and that, as a result, we disincentivise the best and the brightest from running for public office. This has consequences for our democracy, and for our society.
We create a situation whereby, for most MP's, a second home in London is necessary. Shouldn't we make a contribution towards the cost of that if we insist on them turning up? Alright, perhaps we should keep the profit and bear any losses from such purchases, but they do need somewhere to live. Unlike some of the more cynical conservative bloggers, however, I do feel that they should not be accommodated in some spartan barracks...
Heathrow: proof that the middle classes are pandered to by politicians and media alike?
Later, when my travel patterns changed, I stopped using London City, switching to Heathrow to take advantage of the range of direct flights to the US. I wasn’t the only one who had discovered London City though, and the numbers of passengers and destinations steadily increased. As a concession to local residents, the airport was closed at nights, and for twenty-four hours every weekend, and all was presumably well.Thursday, January 15, 2009
An escape to Fantasy Island - Digby Jones's unwitting tribute to Ricardo Montalban (somewhat revised)
It probably wasn't his finest moment as an actor, and his fans probably knew him better as a bit of a heartthrob in his time, but he gave his character depth and a sense of moral authority when dealing with those who had an exaggerated sense of their importance or value.
Unfortunately, his death, at the age of 88, means that he can't help Digby Jones to see the error of his recent statement about the Civil Service, so I'll have to stand in for him.
I see that Digby is of the view that many civil servants deserve the axe. Funnily enough, my fellow civil servants would quite like to take an axe to him...
Whilst he believes that the Civil Service is 'honest, stuffed with decent people who work hard', he was amazed 'at how many people deserved the sack and yet that was the one threat that they never worked under, because it doesn't exist'.
Lord Jones of Birmingham was appointed as a Life Peer in 2007 to serve as a Government Minister, stood down in 2008 and has now resigned the Labour whip, sitting as a crossbencher. As a Life Peer, he cannot be removed from his position except by death. Ironic, isn't it?
In the meantime, I raise a glass to Ricardo Montalban. He brought a little sunshine to the lives of filmgoers everywhere. Not a bad epitaph...
Much ado about nothing - more Conservative flapping over the Euro
It is clearly a slow news day because, when you actually read the article that follows, she is quoted as saying,
"We will make a decision based on economic conditions. We have identified five tests that have to be met: convergence with other European economies, flexibility, impact on investment, the impact on the financial services industry and growth, stability and employment. At the moment, those economic tests have not been met."
So far, so sensible. Ms Flint is merely reiterating existing Government policy and, as most sensible politicians do, leaving options open.
That said, the exchange does raise two interesting questions. The first is, "Are the tests now met?". The last Treasury assessment was carried out in 2003, and much has changed since then. I am not so up to speed that I believe that they have been met, but it would be interesting to see how the situation looks now, would it not?
And, whilst the Conservatives and their friends in the media would doubtless get on their high horses about loss of sovereignty and saving the pound, a commitment by the Government stating categorically that entry to the Euro would be preceded by a binding referendum would shoot that particular fox. Given that the Liberal Democrats are already committed to such a referendum, the existence of a coalition of political parties representing more than half of those who voted in 2005, would legitimise the position quite effectively.
My second question is, "What are the Conservatives thinking?" I accept that Conservatives have a virulent aversion to the Euro, but to say that they would keep the pound 'regardless of the circumstances' is economic idiocy of the highest order. Are they seriously suggesting that the retention of a currency trumps the wider economy in terms of their policy priorities? I can't imagine that they really mean it, so is Mr Cameron's comment merely a bit of red meat for the troops, and a bit of a white lie for the rest of us? Given the rumours regarding the return of Ken Clarke to the Shadow Cabinet, one's gut reaction is that it is exactly that...
The unbearable lightness of sporting failure
When American football made its first inroads into British consciousness in the mid-eighties, I was quite excited, and decided to adopt a team to make it more interesting. As the colour of my political party, and of my beloved football team was orange, I chose the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As it turned out, I'd selected the team with the worst record of any NFL team that decade. Not so much an orange as a lemon...
My cricket team of choice was Sussex, the county of my mother's family. One of the oldest counties in first class cricket, they had won precisely zero County Championships, the pinnacle of the domestic game, despite 130 years of honest effort. A bit of limited over success, admittedly, but perennial underachievers nonetheless.
Ironically, both ugly ducklings turned into swans eventually. The Buccaneers won a Super Bowl, but only after changing their colours from a friendly tangerine to a rather more assertive deep red and black combination. Sussex won their first County Championship, inspiring the classic headline '164 years of hurt, never stopped believing' before winning two more in short order.
So, it couldn't really be much worse, could it? Actually, it can be - I support Luton Town, currently the worst team in the Football League, or so it would appear. In the years that I have followed them from the old Second Division up to the First, back down to League 2 (the old Fourth Division) before two promotions and two relegations brought them to League 2 at the beginning of this season.
Bad enough, you might think, but the ineptitude of the previous Board had taken the club into administration, and breaches of league rules meant that punishment was due. A ten point deduction for going into administration, an extra seven for failing to agree a deal with creditors, plus thirteen more for the rule breaches, meant that my beloved Hatters started the season with minus thirty points, the worst penalty in league history.
Relegation to the Blue Square Premiership, the fifth tier of English football, looked like a certainty. However, the team have tried hard and, after twenty-four fixtures, with seven wins, nine draws and eight defeats, we're back to zero. Alright, I admit that the team will still be playing away games at places like Eastbourne Borough next season, but at least they'll have tried. And, as hope springs eternal, they're not relegated yet, so you never know...
There is an eight inch long golden penis in my wife's office...
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
There’s always someone worse off than you are…
The Irish Independent reports that, no matter how bad I might think it is here, things are about to get much worse in Ireland, where the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, is suggesting that, far from receiving scheduled pay increases, it may be necessary to enforce pay cuts on Irish civil servants. Clearly, the Irish Government are not planning to take a Keynesian approach to public spending, although with rumours that the International Monetary Fund are standing by to step in, and the Euro at unprecedented levels against the pound, there is very little room for manoeuvre.
Worse still, for those living near the border with Northern Ireland, the temptation to cross the border to shop is huge, given the exchange rate movements over the past year. A year ago, one euro bought less than 74p. By September, it bought 79p. Now, one euro is worth more than 90p, a 22% increase in just one year.
The economy that was so strong is being undercut by the developing economies of Eastern and central Europe, with the irony of the Irish Government appealing to the European Commission to investigate state aid given by the Polish Government to attract Dell, one of Ireland’s flagship employers, to move production to Lodz, with an immediate loss of 1,900 jobs in Limerick, and another 8,000 at risk according to reports.
Perhaps we shouldn’t be quite so gloomy, after all…
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
An evening of culture with my mates, Henry, Georg Friedrich, Joseph and Felix
- the 350th anniversary of the birth of Henry Purcell;
- the 250th anniversary of the death of Georg Friedrich Handel;
- the 200th anniversary of the death of Joseph Haydn; and,
- the 200th anniversary of the birth of Felix Mendelssohn
It is a very rich year for musical anniversaries, especially given the connections that all four had with music making in this country.
Handel, in particular, has an unexpected link to this otherwise anonymous part of North West London in which I live. His Chandos Anthems were written for the 1st Duke of Chandos, whose palatial mansion in what is now Canons Park, was one of the finest houses in the country when it was rebuilt in the years 1713-1720. They were performed in the Church of St Lawrence which, unlike Canons, still stands today.
The problem with events like these is that we don't really know many of our fellow attendees. The artistic set and politicians don't often come into contact so people mill about, talking to the people that they know, so we didn't stay too long, before heading for dinner at a restaurant in the Brunswick Centre nearby, and a relatively early night.
If you're going to be irritated by something, you might as well profit from it...
Today, however, I found myself behind a couple of young, smartly dressed employees of Deloittes, that ubiquious accounting firm, with a whole page of drink and snack orders. It was clear that they had the full attention of the staff, and that nobody else was going to be served until they were done. Given that the whole purpose of the exercise was to grab a quick coffee, I allowed my irritation at their thoughtlessness to convince me that I wasn't willing to wait, and returned to my desk, uncaffinated.
Except that I could, if I wasn't so lazy, make my own coffee. I have a cafetiere, some quite good filter coffee and some sweeteners (I take my coffee black). Not only would I save myself something like £2.50 a time, I'd drink the blend of my choice, and I wouldn't have to go as far to get it.
And so, at least for a while, goodbye Starbucks. Perhaps once the irritation subsides, I might return, but until then, the money saved can furnish my bank account...
Another Conservative forgets how the public sector works - or is Lord James of Blackheath not paying attention?
That review called for fairly swingeing cuts in public expenditure, involving a reduction in the size of the civil service. I didn't then, and don't now, have an objection to cutting the size of government as an aim, although the Labour Party took great delight in shouting from the rooftops that Conservatives were going to cut 'vital public services'. The proposed spending cuts, totalling £34 billion, were one of the many self-inflicted wounds that cost the Conservatives in 2005.
His reward was a seat in the House of Lords in 2006, where he specialises in issues relating to defence procurement, NHS finances and Olympic funding. Yesterday, he asked the following question in the Lords;
"To ask Her Majesty's Government, in light of the current economic circumstances, whether they will impose a freeze on new public sector recruitment and permit only replacements for staff who have left."
I fear that the noble Lord has rather lost touch with recent developments in government employment strategies. In terms of Central Government, the existing target of cutting budgets by 5% per annum in real terms has had significant effects on employment levels, with 25,000 jobs going over six years in HM Revenue & Customs alone. The costs of government bureaucracy arise predominantly from the salaries of staff and the buildings needed to house them, and so it is inevitable that job losses are part of the strategy.
Lord James also overlooks the need to maintain a conveyor belt of future senior civil servants. They don't come fully matured, but need to be trained and developed across a range of government activity. Recruits entering the Civil Service this year will be the mandarins of thirty years hence, and you need to allow for that.
I won't say much about the impact of such a proposal on Local Government, except to note that centrally driven restrictions on public sector employment are hardly consistent with Conservative thoughts on localism.
Lord Myners's response is somewhat reassuring. Yes, there will be continuing efforts to drive down the costs of government. However, he seems to understand that some elements of its work are demand-driven. For example, if unemployment increases, you need more staff to handle benefit claims and to assist peope to find work.
It would be foolish to suggest that Lord James is engaging in the politics of the cheap soundbite. However, he should be cautious lest his actions give the impression that he is doing just that...
A bureaucratic faux pas - nobody dead
However, all was not lost, as there were still vacancies to be filled at last night's Regional Executive Committee meeting. I had taken the precaution of writing to the Regional Secretary, Andrew Horsler, a thoroughly decent guy and a worthy successor, noting that I would like to serve as a member of English Council and, in addition, as the London nominee for the English Party's Appeals Panel.
Andrew very kindly got back to me this morning, confirming that my place on English Council had been secured. However, I had been unsuccessful in terms of the Appeal Panel. In many ways, this was a good thing, as it was discovered afterwards that I am ineligible to serve due to my membership of the English Candidates Committee. You live and learn, don't you?...
Monday, January 12, 2009
Are Londoners more selfish than the rest of the country? Or just busier?
My attention has been drawn to a report from the Department of Communities and Local Government, which indicates that the proportion of people formally participating in voluntary activities at least once a month is lower in London than in any other English region. 23% of Londoners engage in some form of formal volunteering at least monthly, compared to 25-31% in other regions (step forward the South West, at the upper end of that range).
It doesn’t look good for us, I admit, but I do wonder whether or not there are contributory factors. For example, I spend about ten hours a week commuting, an amount which is hardly extraordinary for Londoners. There is somewhat less of a sense of a community in the faceless city, and less of the groups which thrive in small towns and villages. The temptation to give money so that someone else can do the work is easy to give in to.
As a political activist (of sorts), I find myself wondering if this impacts on the ability of political parties to recruit and retain members and, more importantly, activists. Attending evening meetings tends to get in the way of the rest of my life, occupying time I might otherwise spend with my wife and family, disrupting my meal schedule, and preventing me from doing the other things that occupy the day to day lives of many people.
Under such circumstances, it is hardly surprising that membership and activity of political parties is in long-term decline. The expectation that women, in particular, will have household or carer responsibilities, increasingly on top of their careers, tends to lessen the desire to commit even more of their precious time to politics, or other volunteering activities for that matter. And now that men are beginning to take on a fairer share of domestic chores, they are less likely to engage too.
Returning to the report though, it is interesting to note that, contrary to some opinions, the involvement of younger people in volunteering activity remains relatively high, although one must differentiate between informal and formal volunteering. 41% of those in the 16-25 age bracket participate in informal volunteering activity at least once a month, a figure which drops away through the age ranges. On the negative side, 23% of 16-25 year olds, and 22% of 26-34 year olds participate in formal volunteering activities at least once a month, less than any other age group.
This might not augur well for community organisations in the decades to come, and how to attract new volunteers is likely to become a more pressing concern in future. At a time when political parties are keen to involve the voluntary sector in the provision of services, it would be ironic if they lost the ability to respond.
Paying the cost for a false market in train travel
Take AK-47, aim at foot, fire at will... an object lesson in how to lose sympathy by Hamas
The overall leader of Hamas, Khaled Meshaal, pictured to the left, is based in Syria, where he lives. As its official leader, his words carry much weight amongst Palestinians, regardless of their political persuasion or degree of militancy. So, when he suggests that any hope of a peace settlement has been destroyed forever, has he really considered what message he is sending out to the wider world?To moderate Arab opinion, to the European Union and to the other players in the Middle East peace talks, he indicates that any effort on their part to broker a ceasefire is futile. To the Israelis attacking Gaza, he provides every justification to continue. Worst of all, to the residents of Gaza, he sends a clear message that their lives are to be sacrificed for a cause that will never be satisfied. Sitting in the safety of Damascus, perhaps he should mull over the foolishness that was Saddam Hussein's, claiming to have offensive capacities that didn't exist and daring the world to take them from him.
The US-led coalition called Saddam's bluff, and I fear that the Israelis will call Mr Meshaal's. The collateral casualties in Hamas's campaign of terror against Israel will not thank him for it...
