A Presidential campaign kicks off…

I’ll freely admit that I don’t know much about Josh Babarinde, who launched his campaign for the Presidency of the Liberal Democrats yesterday. That isn’t a criticism - I may be one of the painfully few members of the Party whose attention is mostly on the other end of the Palace of Westminster (for perhaps obvious reasons). But I do know about successful campaigns for the post, having played a small part in one of the most successful Presidential campaigns in the Party’s history.

And, regardless of what I think about Josh or his ability to do the job, I’ve been impressed by the “shock and awe” impact of his opening gambit. Big name endorsements? Check. Support from across the Regions and States? Check. A clear statement of intent? Check. Getting out there early? Check.

I have said this over and over again. You can’t just turn up at Conference, gather the nominations and then persuade thousands of members, many of whom will never have heard of you before, to elect you to one of the two most prominent roles in the Party. Well, perhaps Paddy and Shirley could have done that, but really?

As a masterclass in how to campaign, I am impressed by Josh’s launch. Whilst I am not a campaigner by comparison with so many people I admire, I do have a firm grasp of how successful campaigns operate (mostly thanks to what I’ve gleaned from Ros, admittedly). And Josh, and presumably his campaign team, have done exactly what I would do in his situation. Now, any potential candidate is going to have to ask themselves the question, “Can I beat Josh, and if so, how?”.

And, with a lot of potentially key endorsers already committed (with, I suspect, more to come), the space for another credible campaign is squeezed.

That doesn’t make Josh unbeatable but it does mean that either someone pretty incredible is going to turn up, or run a sensational campaign, or Josh is going to have to screw up pretty sensationally. Any of that is possible, but is it probable? Frankly, I have no idea, and am probably one of the least likely people to find out.

Luckily, my endorsement isn’t ever likely to be highly sought - I’m part of the Party’s history and not its future - and Josh is representative of the new generation of leaders and activists who will take the Party into the mid-century, so I’m not going to have to make a decision for a while yet.

Therefore, I have the luxury of allowing the campaign to unfold, hear the arguments and ambitions of the candidates and judge who might do the best job as President. I had the privilege to have a front row seat for the Presidency which took the Party into government for the first time in seven decades, and perhaps my view of the role is coloured by that, but my vote will be an informed one nonetheless.

In the meantime, let the battle begin…