Cybernat challenge no. 1: public sector employment

The other day, I wrote a gentle piece about Scottish independence, focusing on some of the issues which should impact on any decision that Scots might make when voting in a referendum on the subject. My dear friend, and fellow Liberal Democrat Voice day editor, Caron Lindsay, very kindly tweeted that my words might be of interest and, indeed, I did trigger a response from a pro-independence campaigner, who challenged my suggestion that Scotland is perceived to have disproportionately high levels of public sector employment.

I'll be honest, trying to challenge the existence of a perception is pretty brave, especially when the perception is suggested by a formerly London-based civil servant whose department transferred all of South West London's corporation tax administration from Twickenham to Dundee (that would be in Scotland, as I recall...).

But, perhaps one should look at the facts...

Here are the numbers for public sector employment as a proportion of total workforce;

1. Northern Ireland  27.9% 
2. Wales 25.8%
3. North East 24.6%
4. Scotland 23.8%
5. Yorkshire and the Humber 22.4%
6. North West 21.8%
7. West Midlands 20.7%
8. South West 19.8%
9. East Midlands 19.2%
10. London 18.3%
11. South East 17.2%
12. East of England 17.0%

That compares with 20.6% for the United Kingdom, 20.2% for Great Britain and 19.6% for England.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2011, Scotland had 587,000 public sector jobs, i.e. 79,000 more than it would have if it had United Kingdom levels of public sector employment, 89,000 if it had Great Britain levels of public sector employment, and more than 103,000 if it had English levels of public sector employment. For the record, as an East of England based civil servant these days, Scotland would have nearly 168,000 less public sector workers if the proportion of public sector workers was similar to that in this region.


Now, all of those numbers are significant, some more than others (I would suggest that the comparison with the East of England merely demonstrates how hard done by our region is).


So, what might cause this? Here are some suggestions;

• large rural areas to be served - this may require greater staffing numbers
• greater levels of deprivation - these generate significant number of social support staff
• transfers of central government work - successive governments have transferred jobs from the wealthier South East of England to the North, to Scotland and to Wales

Now, the third likely factor is a obvious problem, as a 'rump' United Kingdom would clearly want to repatriate these jobs. Yes, a new Scottish Government would need to set up new structures, allowing some affected staff an escape, but the likelihood is that the net effect would be necessary.

As for the other two, the question would be, can a new Scottish Government raise the funds to retain a relatively high level of State provision, and would it use taxation as the means to do so. Or, would it choose not to do so, allowing public sector employment to decline? Alternatively, might economic growth be relied upon to solve the problem over time? You could use oil revenues to pay the bills, but that income stream is probably finite, merely postponing the judgment day.

In summary, public sector employment should be a major issue in any referendum campaign and the linkage to likely levels of State provision will impact on a sizable minority of the population. So far, the only response has been to rather hope that, by denying it, it will go away. It won't...