Scottish Independence: a net employment gain for England?

Courtesy of a Parliamentary Question, the regional distribution of Civil Service employment has been brought to my attention. And the data is quite interesting.

As at 31 March 2011, the headcount for the Civil Service was as follows;

• England                                        404,043
• Scotland                                         48,832
• Wales                                             33,299
• Northern Ireland                             4,355*

* Northern Ireland has its own Civil Service, and so it is rather difficult to do a reasonable comparison.

So, how does this compare to population? England has one civil servant per 129 head of population, Scotland has one per 107 and Wales has one per 90.

Naturally, there are reasons for the discrepancies. As a major employer, governments, especially Labour ones, have sought to transfer Civil Service offices from London and the South East to areas where employment opportunities are relatively few. This has benefits in terms of recruitment and retention, and the costs of accommodation are far less in East Kilbride and Merthyr Tydfil than they are in Croydon, Maidstone or Reading, let alone central London.

However, if Scotland does become independent, much of the work done there on behalf of non-Scottish customers would have to be repatriated, thus providing some employment south of the border. And yes, some of those staff would be transferred into new roles working for the Scottish Government, policy advisors, even whole new departments. In all likelihood, independence would be, at worst, employment neutral, as far as the public sector is concerned, although there would be an interesting question about how an enlarged public sector might be financed.