County Council elections - what's happening in Mid Suffolk? (part 1)

I am, I admit, a bit remote from local politics in Suffolk for a slew of reasons too tedious to mention here. However, that does offer me some time to look at the contests with the slightly jaundiced eye of an outside observer. So, what's happening?

We'll start with Bosmere, Ros's old division, which was lost to the Conservatives in 2017, and again in the 2018 by-election which followed the death of Ann Whybrow. And this time sees a repeat of the by-election contest, which Kay Oakes won by just twenty-one votes over Steve Phillips. It would be fair to say that Suzanne Britton, the Labour candidate, is expected to be a distant third, given that their vote has consistently declined over twenty years to around the 10% mark.

It'll be a seat that the Liberal Democrats will be anxious to win back, and given the issues that recently overtook Kay Oakes, you'd have to think that Steve, who is currently the Mayor of Needham Market and one of its District Councillors, would have every chance. But the ward is made up of a fairly even split between the town of Needham market and a collection of outlying villages to the west and south-west, and how the votes split in the hinterland may well prove to be vital.

Gipping Valley is a Liberal Democrat defence, although John Field is standing down after twenty years, which offers something of a challenge with a new candidate, Adrienne Marriott. It may be to her advantage that the Conservative lives in Ipswich and that Labour probably won't fight this one too hard - this is another ward where their vote has steadily declined over two decades.

Jessica Fleming not only writes murder mysteries in Cabot Cove but, in her spare time, is the Conservative councillor for Hartismere, which runs along the Norfolk border to the west of Eye. Admittedly, she doesn't live there, or even in a neighbouring division, but apparently in our neighbouring parish of Creeting St Mary. That probably won't stop her describing herself as the "local" candidate, and she'll probably win against Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green opposition.

Two years ago, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Eye lost by forty-nine votes, after a bundle check shifted fifty votes from his pile to the Conservative candidate. Tim Glenton is back this time, contesting the once Liberal Democrat-held division of Hoxne and Eye. Veteran Conservative councillor, Guy McGregor, having been deselected somewhat acrimoniously, is fighting the seat as an independent, hoping to displace the official Conservative candidate, Peter Gould, who was the winner in the District Council elections in 2019. Is this a chance for a now battle-tested Liberal Democrat candidate to benefit from some blue on blue action? Once again, we can probably discount the Labour challenge, given that the candidate lives in Ipswich.

And, finally for this part, Stowmarket North and Stowupland, the division which covers my own beloved Creeting St Peter. Last time, Conservative incumbent Gary Green comfortably beat the Greens Keith Welham into second place by about twenty percentage points. The absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate this time - I wasn't asked and I wouldn't have run had I been - may favour Keith, who is now a highly regarded District councillor for Haughley and Stowupland. He was certainly popular in Creeting St Peter, and I'd expect him to do well in the non-Stowmarket elements of the Division.

Turnout is traditionally fairly low, under 27% in both 2013 and 2017, and probably favours the more established communities of Stowupland and Creeting St Peter. It'll be an uphill struggle for Keith, but I think that he has a decent shot at this one.

Tomorrow, I'll turn my attention to Stowmarket South, a seat with a lively recent history, the Thedwastres (North and South), Thredling and Upper Gipping...