Friday, April 26, 2019

Welcome to the new politics, even if it does look sadly familiar...

I’ve been a Liberal, and then Liberal Democrat, for a long time - thirty-five years now. And, whilst I would prefer to deny it, I am a bit tribal in my politics. I probably cut those of my political family a bit more slack than I might otherwise do, possibly because I know them better. It’s also possibly because I acknowledge that, as a liberal, life is complicated, and people’s motivations are predicated on life experiences that I may very well be utterly unaware of. And, I know that people are flawed, myself included.

Political parties, whilst apparently monolithic on the outside, are not wholly discrete actors. There are members of all political parties who might credibly find a home elsewhere and, in any event, political parties vary their positions in response to a range of external stimuli.

And it’s for these reasons that I’ve seldom remarked on Party defections with anything other than regret.

One of my older political acquaintances announced this week that he was joining Change UK, and took some flak for doing so. I was sorry to see him go, but respect his right to do so. He has his reasons, and I’m sure that he didn’t take the decision lightly. And, depending on what happens, he may return one day. I’d like to think that we could make that easier, rather than harder.

Politics, particularly politics of the political centre, requires the building of coalitions of interest in order to achieve change and, as liberals (as opposed to centrists), we should have a clearer understanding of that than most. Thus, whilst wanting to maintain a liberal political force in British politics, we should show a little bit of tolerance for those who agree with much of our agenda but don’t feel that they are liberals for whatever reason. We will, at some point, need their votes.

Sadly, the news that Change UK have produced a (no longer) secret strategy paper which proposes a slow and steady strangulation of the Liberal Democrats suggests that they don’t see it the same way. The document, if genuine, looks like a classic “new-entrant to a business sector” paper where, in order to achieve viability, you have to drive somebody else out. And, in economics, that might work. In politics, especially FPTP politics, it’s rather less likely.

What it has achieved is to cast suspicion on the motives of a new political party which already lacks a coherent philosophical base. What is Change UK in favour of, as opposed to being against? Are their leaders able to coalesce around ideas because they’re in favour of them, rather than picking some popular policies from a competitor as a form of “sheep’s clothing”? To be blunt, I’m not convinced.

They are, in political terms, a threat for Liberal Democrats (obviously). They are fishing for voters in a similar pool, they will compete for limited media coverage, and they have the advantage of newness, regardless of whether that is justified or not. But, unless they can offer something genuinely unique, their only prospects for long-term survival are electoral reform or a collapse of the Liberal Democrats.

The former means enlarging the coalition for electoral reform, rather than cannibalising it, and the latter requires them to consistently outpoll the Liberal Democrats and make inroads in local government. The latter is surprisingly difficult, as Liberal Democrats found out in 2011-2015 - low membership equates to poor numbers of candidates, thus little likelihood of significance. It also requires a core of people who know how to run a campaign - basic stuff like getting nomination signed and submitted, for example. They will need to find people to do that, which means that this round of local elections probably came far too soon.

But they’re also going to have to come up with some policy ideas now, and as many new political parties discover, that’s where the problems start. New members in the early stages see a party as a blank canvass for their own aspirations, and as it becomes more obvious that they will need to compromise, you start to lose people - the “that’s not the Party I aspired to” dilemma.

So, we shall see. At this stage, I don’t see much to tempt me, but you can and should never say never...

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