Let's start with the obvious caveat here, i.e. that Project Fear turns out to be Project Fact, and that the British economy splutters to, at best, a halt or, at worst, begins to go into reverse gear. For, if Brexit creates the bold new future that we were promised, the Conservatives will be in power for a while yet.
But let's say that negotiations drag on, as the dawning realisation emerges amongst the Cabinet that there will need to be some compromises, and that the apparently simple turns out to be hideously complex - the Irish question, seamless access for U.K. Goods into the European Union and vice versa, all of the "human" elements, to name but the already obvious ones.
How do the Conservatives keep the show on the road? Compromise will anger the Brexit ultras, especially if the European Court of Justice continues to have a role, or payments to the European Union continue after we formally leave. And that's just the sovereignty campaigners. Will those who voted Leave to send the foreigners home, or at least stop more from coming, tolerate tens of thousands coming to nurse our sick, serve our coffee, drive our buses or any of the vast array of tasks that European Union nationals do now, just because farmers, or universities, or publicans need them? Unlikely, I'd have thought. And as for the free traders, hoping for a newly invigorated Britain, trading our goods across the globe, be content to effectively allow the Europeans to determine our trading standards?
It is difficult to envisage how all of them will be kept happy, although it always was if you gave it much thought. The Leave campaign was always pretty clear about what it was against, whilst at the same time, unable to espouse anything else that it agreed upon.
But, if the compromises are made, and it still goes wrong, who will stand by the people whose negotiation skills led us to such a pass? The Remainers don't have any grounds to do so, and the ultras will want someone to blame - "they were betrayed" will be the narrative.
There is a way out. It isn't a pleasant one, and the consequences could be bitter indeed, but it offers the ultimate opportunity to pass the buck, i.e. walk out of the negotiations without a deal and blame the evil Europeans. That would allow the Conservatives to fight a snap General Election with the Mail, the Sun and the Times waving the Union Jack and denouncing anyone who questions their actions as traitors to their country.
And yes, the impact on the economy would be awful - could the European Union sign a trade deal with the United Kingdom under such circumstances? - but it would buy the Conservatives more time in which things might turn around. Call it the Micawber strategy, if you like.
There are still those who believe that a deal can be cut, that with goodwill on both sides, rationality will produce something which both sides can present as a success. My fear is that the European Union's determination to ensure that leaving the Union is not seen as being attractive, and the seeming total incomprehension of leading Conservatives as to how Europe actually works, will lead to a point where a sensible compromise doesn't present itself.
And whilst the debate here appears solely predicated on what it good for Britain - and both Remainers and Brexiteers are guilty on that charge - the question of what is good for Estonia, or Greece, or Belgium, is completely ignored. And they've got votes... and a veto.
I have a bad feeling about this...
No comments:
Post a Comment