Unlikely but strangely likely? The Five Star Movement abandon UKIP for liberalism?

Today's news that Beppe Grillo, the leader of Italy's Five Star Movement (M5S), has called an online vote on his recommendation that they leave the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) Group and switch to the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE) is something of a bolt out of a clear blue sky. There had, after all, been no suggestion that such a move was being contemplated, and to move from being aligned with UKIP to being aligned with the Liberal Democrats is a bit of a plot twist.

The strange thing is, when they entered into a grouping with UKIP in the first place, it seemed like an odd choice. After all, the five stars represent public water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, access to the Internet and environmentalism - not exactly things that you would associate with Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. As an avowedly populist party though, they didn't appear to sit entirely comfortably anywhere, and given that the European Parliament tends to favour a coming together of national delegations into groups, and UKIP were sorely in need of allies, perhaps a loose arrangement with UKIP suited both parties nicely. And loose apears to be the right word, given the claims that the M5S only voted with UKIP about 20% of the time.

There is nothing amongst their five core priorities that jars with the ALDE platform, and their enthusiasm for direct democracy and e-democracy hardly rules out closer working.

So, if members of the Movement, voting online, accept the recommendation, one presumes that talks will commence regarding the transfer from EFDD to ALDE, albeit that it seems unlikely that some discussions haven't already taken place. It may be a bit ragged - there are already suggestions that some of their seventeen MEPs are less than entirely keen - but it would reduce UKIP's influence in the Parliament and make ALDE the third largest group in the Parliament once again.

What this doesn't necessarily mean is that the M5S will be joining the ALDE Party - the ALDE Parliamentary Group is somewhat larger than the ALDE Party, consisting as it does of members of the ALDE Party, the European Democratic Party plus the odd independent.

There is undoubtedly a space for a liberal party in Italian politics. Whether or not the Five Star Movement is that party is still to become clear, but they do at least offer a potential starting point...