Tax credits reform: how badly wrong could this go?

From the moment that the Conservatives announced their plans to reform the tax credits system, there was a sense that they either didn't understand the implications of what they were doing, or simply didn't care, lost in a reverie of ideology. However, as it becomes clearer that this might not be popular, and we are all aware that politicians prefer to be popular rather than unpopular, there have been increasing signs of nervousness among the serried ranks of Conservative MPs.

Compassionate Conservatism surely means that, in the search of the mythical centre ground, they can't be uncaring, can they? So, let's see if we can't dig a little deeper. The Social Security Select Committee in the House of Commons is a good place to start, perhaps. After all, they scrutinise that sort of thing, right?

Paul Gray MP, writing to David Gauke, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, noted;

... we were disappointed that HM Revenue and Customs officials were not in a position to share with us their observations on:

• the potential impact the introduction of the national living wage might have on the proposals;

• whether there were likely to be any behavioural impacts brought about by the proposals;

• the degree to which the proposals are likely to impact upon the successful transition of Tax Credits to Universal Credit;

• the likely or actual effects of the policy on people of ‘protected characteristics’ and the evidence considered in reaching that view; and

• the evidence that had resulted in a view that the proposals will have no impact on charities or the voluntary sector

You might, not unreasonably, be hesitant to proceed in the absence of that data. Unless, of course, you assume that tax credit claimants probably don't vote Conservative in any great numbers and that with Labour at war with itself, you could get away with it anyway.

You might also think, if you were George Osborne, that the announcement of a national Living Wage might muddy the waters so much that you could slip this through without much debate. It seems that this hasn't been as effective a strategy, if strategy it is.

Next Tuesday, there is a Motion of Regret on the Order paper of the House of Lords, in the name of Lord Kirkwood of Kirkhope. Archy, for it is the former Liberal and then Liberal Democrat MP for Roxburgh and Berwickshire, has been a doughty campaigner on social security issues for some years, and I suspect that he will not spare the Government in his remarks.

Will it persuade the Conservatives to give the matter rather more thought. I hope so, but have no great expectations...