Hey George, enough of the hyperbolae already!

George Osborne's key job is to persuade us all that everything about the British economy is terrible, and made worse by Labour failures over the past twelve years. Fair enough, as he's hardly going to say that they've done a good job and, in truth, the economy is in pretty grim shape.

With unemployment heading towards three million, the banks not lending, and homes being repossessed at the fastest rate since the early nineties, you wouldn't want to run for office on the basis of the success of the British economy. However, you do have a responsibility to demonstrate some sense of perspective.

In November, George claimed that it was 'the truth that it (the UK's) is the worst-prepared economy in the world for recession. The truth that the pound has fallen by a record amount against other currencies.' No it wasn't. He was merely alleging that it was. Compared to Ireland, Iceland and large chunks of Eastern Europe, what we're experiencing is a picnic. Japan, Singapore and other East Asian economies are suffering too.

This month, he claims that, "the UK's public finances are not just the worst in the world but the worst since World War II". Come on George, haven't you read about Zimbabwe? You've got a pretty good case and there's no need to stretch it beyond credibility.

Don't get me wrong, there is much to criticise this Government for. Their repeated optimism as to the level of tax revenue, their failure to invest in projects that would provide a long-term return, their inability to see an area of our national life that couldn't be interfered with, or an area of taxation policy that couldn't be tweaked. As for Gordon Brown's assertion that the United Kingdom is best-prepared to face the recession, whistling in the wind may provide some short term reassurance, but without concrete improvement, it merely delays the moment of disappointment.

But let's be sensible here. Telling the British people that they've never had it so bad economically is lowering the bar for an incoming Conservative administration to a point where even a pygmy would be hard pressed to limbo under it. Or it would be were it not for the fact that reducing support for Labour is, in itself, probably not enough to win a majority for the Conservatives. To make the big move, they've got to persuade people that they can make it better.

That's going to be a more difficult task. Given the massively increased level of public debt, a Conservative Chancellor is going to need one (or more) of three things;

• significant tax increases
• significant cuts in public spending
• a dramatic level of growth in the UK economy

The first option would be intellectually honest, politically suicidal and likely to cause almost unbearable tensions between the leadership and those currently cheerleading for a Conservative victory. Very few Conservative activists will have been working hard only to increase taxes across the board.

The second option would meet with approval amongst most Conservative activists, right up to the point where stories of NHS waiting lists started to emerge in the media. It never ceases to amaze me how people are keen to see the Government spend less on everything, as long as it doesn't affect them personally. For all that Alistair Darling talks of efficiency savings, neither Labour or Conservative administrations have ever delivered the sort of cuts that they claimed were possible and, without a strategy to define what government should be for, it is unlikely that they ever will.

And as for the third, unless we discover vast and unsuspected oil, gold and uranium ore reserves within United Kingdom territory, the chances of growth exceeding 4% per annum this side of 2015 are remote to the point of Tolkienesque fantasy.

In truth, 2010 could turn out to be a pretty good election to lose, especially if the end of the recession is as delayed as some fear it might be...