I guess that we probably ought to go clockwise around the county town so...
There's no doubt that Tom Bartleet, our first time candidate in South Suffolk, clearly enjoyed himself, running something of a guerilla campaign, and I know that a lot of effort went into it. There may have been a bit of tractor driving too. But a seat that, according to some of the MRP data out there, was predicted to go Labour or Reform, was always going to be a tough nut to crack, and the result showed a narrow improvement in our position, increasing our vote from an notional 12.7% to 13.2%, good enough to beat the Greens for fourth in an area where the latter have done quite well in local elections in recent years.
South Suffolk was unusual in one respect, in that it saw the only successful candidate seeking re-election across the whole county in James Cartlidge, whose majority shrank to just 3,047, with a 18.3% swing from the Conservatives to Labour. Interestingly, the Labour vote didn't increase by that much - 7.5% - which might be explained by their almost total lack of a local government base across the constituency, one District councillor and no County councillors. That'll be a recurring theme here...
West Suffolk has been something of a black hole for Liberal Democrats in recent years, and the idea that Nick Timothy, whose efforts for Theresa May did so much to boost her popularity, might not win here was absurd, right up to the point when the exit poll was announced. I'd expected Reform to do well, given that their now former Vice-Chair, David Bull, was the candidate, but not sufficiently so as to overturn an enormous notional majority. But, again, Labour edged up enough to get within 3,247 votes, based on their support bases of Haverhill and Newmarket. They do at least have councillors in those towns, but little support anywhere else across the heathlands.
As far as we were concerned, Henry Batchelor managed to increase our vote by 0.2% to 9.3% which, given the likelihood that we would be squeezed by the "big three", must be seen as a decent outcome, and again we beat the Greens for fourth.
The first shock of the night was Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket, where Will Tanner, Rishi Sunak's Chief of Staff, managed to shed almost half of the Conservative support from 2019 and lost to a Labour candidate who certainly wasn't on their list of battleground seats. It's fundamentally the seat that Labour got within 368 votes of winning in 1997 but faded away almost entirely over the next two decades.
Peter McDonald managed to save our deposit in a seat that we'd ceded to the Greens in 2019 as part of the "deal" we did with them, and I'd have taken that at the outset. The Greens will have been disappointed to have fallen back a little, but the next result would doubtless have made up for it.
Waveney Valley Labour were telling anyone who would listen that they were the prime contenders to take this newly-created cross-border seat from the Conservatives, putting out a bar chart suggesting that the Greens would come fourth. That was never going to happen, but I found it hard to believe that Adrian Ramsey and his crew could overcome the difficulties of a large rural constituency without much in the way of major (or even minor) centres of population. They were certainly determined though, and having apparently swallowed whole the entire library of 1990s ALDC literature, they knew what they were doing.
They squeezed the Labour vote from 18.6% to 9.4%, and the Liberal Democrat vote from 9.2% to 2.5%, a performance that any of our campaigners would have been proud of, and you have to say that, if Adrian does what we would do if the positions were reversed, his 5,593 majority might last a while.
A year ago, Lowestoft would have been seen as a Labour banker. The shrunken boundaries of the seat relative to its predecessor, Waveney, took a swathe of previously Conservative territory out, leaving the rather battered port town at the heart of what was left. The only catch was that it was fertile ground for Reform too, and with next door Great Yarmouth going turquoise, you wouldn't have bet against the same thing happening further south. But Labour managed to come from the left and win the seat with just 34.6% of the vote. Adam Robertson was caught in the squeeze, with a lost deposit and 3.6% of the vote the final tally.
Ah, Suffolk Coastal, a seat that was hard to call, not just because of Therese Coffey's stunning levels of unpopularity, but because it really wasn't obvious who to vote for to beat her. The Greens and the Liberal Democrats both have a decent presence at local government level, whilst Labour had the potential advantage of a national swing. I'll admit that I thought that Dr Coffey would hang on but her vote share crashed to an astonishing 29.5% and Labour's Jenny Riddell-Carpenter sneaked home by just 1,070 votes.
Julia Ewart, fighting the seat for a second time for us, ran a gallant campaign but the tide ran against her, leading to a 1.1% fall in our support. I still think that 14.1% gives us something to build upon, and it will be interesting to see what happen in next year's County elections, given that Labour will have to fight territory that has been pretty stony in recent years if they're to build support for a 2029 defence.
And that leaves Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, which I had seen as the most likely Conservative loss given that it includes the north-western part of Ipswich, which lean Labour at the best of times. And, if Kevin Craig hadn't been caught betting against himself, it might well have fallen. But, in the absence of a campaign, and given that betting against yourself is generally frowned upon, Patrick Spencer held on by a relatively comfortable 4,290 on a turnout of 76.5%. Labour will certainly have their eye on that going forward but it was interesting that all five serious contenders gained 11.7% of the vote or better. Brett Mickelburgh dragged our vote up to that 11.7% level, and whilst fifth place doesn't look great in itself, it's a respectable performance in a constituency where the Greens are an entirely credible alternative.
So, no trees torn up by the Liberal Democrats across Suffolk, but we made a little progress across the county as a whole, saved six of our eight deposits, and can take vicarious pleasure in the success of Pippa Heylings in South Cambridgeshire and Marie Goldman in Chelmsford, the two constituencies where our activists were directed as part of the regional targetting strategy.
Attention now turns to next year's County elections, where a number of plot lines will collide. Will the Conservative vote collapse again, leaving opportunities for Labour, the Greens and ourselves? Will Reform play a significant part in the campaign or will their weakness in terms of local organisation offer relief to the Conservatives? How will Labour get on in rural Suffolk without the advantage of an overwhelming air war in the absence of an activist base?
We shall see, but the work for 2025 is already underway...
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