Labour: is messaging enough to re-establish credibility, and how much does it actually matter?

Recent pronouncements on benefits from Rachel Reeves, and on taxation from Ed Balls, have come in for much criticism from their political opponents, and I myself have not been particularly convinced. But, I am reminded, I'm not the target of their messages, as I'll be voting Liberal Democrat anyway. And it makes me wonder, are we in danger of rather missing the point, which is that Labour don't necessarily need to persuade that many people, if current polling is to be believed.

There is a lot of talk amongst the political 'chatterati' that, despite the current numbers, Labour might not be able to form a majority administration. No opposition party with such a narrow lead at this point in the political cycle has won, etc. etc. And yet we know that Labour held 250 seats despite polling less than 30%, the electoral geography operates in their favour and a whole bunch of left-leaning voters who voted Liberal Democrat last time currently feel betrayed by the Party and are minded to vote Labour instead.

And if the evidence of polling by Lord Ashcroft is to be believed, Labour are doing rather better in the seats that really matter, i.e. Labour/Conservative marginals. So, if you think that you're probably doing enough, the priority is to make sure that you keep your supporters motivated. Which brings us back to cutting benefits and reintroducing the 50% rate band.

Forget the argument about whether or not raising the highest rate of tax brings in more revenue, because to most voters, it either doesn't matter - it doesn't affect them - or it involves rich people who can apparently well afford it anyway. And how many people earning £160,000 plus per annum do most people know anyway? And as for benefits, it is still the case that the majority believe that the welfare system is too generous, and goes to too many of the wrong people - the undeserving poor, if you will.

Now I do hear you say that this is massively oversimplistic, and that it's all so much more complex than that, and you'd be right. The catch is, you and I are politically engaged and take an interest in the details. We can discuss the Laffer curve without assuming that it's part of a Grand Prix circuit, even if we don't know too much about the detail, and we have an idea about the actual amounts paid out in various benefits. The general public? Many go along with whatever they've heard which fits sufficiently with their personal biases and experiences - that's why political campaigners write leaflets and stick them through letter boxes.

So, the important question is not, could Labour deliver on such promises if elected, it is whether enough voters believe that they could, and the bar is set rather lower on that one...